AFP
News from the NOS•today, 13:43
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Brands Aida
publisher Brussels
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Brands Aida
publisher Brussels
A ceiling on the price of Russian oil, over 300 billion euros of frozen Russian bank balances and more than 1,200 Russians who are now on the list of European sanctions. These are just some of the measures the EU has taken against Russia. This week the EU presented its eighth sanctions package this year. But do sanctions make sense?
If you look at the indicators of the Russian economy, you will not see outrageously negative figures. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the Russian economy will shrink by only 4-6% this year. Inflation in Russia is currently roughly the same as in the Netherlands. The value of the Russian ruble is also slightly higher than it was before the war.
NOS
In recent months, the figures have prompted several European politicians to question the effectiveness of the sanctions.
According to Eugene Nivorozhkin, a professor specializing in Russian economics at University College London, this is exactly what Putin wants. A divided Europe is weaker. “He says he is at war with the West and NATO,” said the originally Russian economist.
Distorted numbers
The fact that the ruble has risen in value means nothing, according to Nivorozhkin. The ruble cannot be exchanged for foreign currency at this time. Currency has value only in Russia and it is mainly the state that determines the value. Moreover, according to the economist, Putin paints too rosy a picture of the economy.
The Russian president regularly boasts low unemployment rates. He wants to make the Russians happy with this. “But those figures are by no means correct. Production is much lower. Many Russians now work part-time and many people are at home. Yet they are still paid with a salary,” says Nivorozhkin. Putin can afford all this for the moment because a lot of money still comes from oil and gas sales.
“Russia still has some trump cards, such as the National Asset Fund. It is estimated that there are still around $ 200 billion,” says Morena Skalamera, assistant professor of Russian studies at Leiden University. You stress that we should therefore not expect sanctions to have an immediate effect.
Furthermore, for months Russia has been unable to obtain spare parts for Boeing and Airbus aircraft. At the moment, diplomats are no longer allowed to take domestic flights for this reason. And even less equipment would be available on the battlefield.
Both experts predict that it could take another three or four years before the treasury in Russia is so empty that it has serious consequences. “Sanctions shouldn’t really be seen as a means of quickly forcing regime change,” says Skalamera. According to her, the sanctions should be seen above all as a death squeeze on the Russian economy which is getting tighter and tighter.
All the balls on Russian oil
In the latest sanctions package, the Russian oil industry is being tackled more firmly. This is a good thing, according to experts, because it is by far the largest source of income in the country.
However, Skalamera also has reservations about this measure. He says that, like many other sanctions, it will be very difficult for countries to ensure they are respected. “Besides, Putin still manages to strike a blow in the energy war.” For example, shortly before the announcement of the eighth sanctions package, major oil producing countries, including Russia, announced that they would remember the oil pumping up to cause prices to rise.
In the EU, hopes have long since vanished that Putin will eventually end the violence as a result of sanctions. EU leaders especially hope that the punitive measures will make Russia less powerful on the battlefield. Ukraine will eventually get trump cards in a possible negotiation with Russia.
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