Biden spoke at an event in New York yesterday an “approaching armageddon”. This may also be what you think about when we talk about nuclear weapons: huge mushroom clouds and massive destruction. “This is the image people have with Hiroshima and Nagasaki on the retina,” says Niels van Willigen, associate professor of international relations at Leiden University.
But experts primarily fear the deployment of “a small nuclear weapon”. Russia has around 6,000 nuclear weapons. Fortunately, we are still a long way from that scenario. “It only gets really dangerous when you see concrete preparations for an attack are starting, then you really have to worry. As far as we know, that’s not the case yet.” However, Van Willigen understands the references to the Cuban missile crisis. “Tensions are rising for the first time in all these years.”
restrain Putin
According to correspondent Erik Mouthaan, Biden’s harsh words are meant to curb Putin. “It is a reminder to the Russian leader that the United States has a much more powerful army and will not allow the use of nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine,” Mouthaan said. “If he does, the United States could respond harshly.”
Cuban Missile Crisis, What Was New?
The Cuban Missile Crisis took place in October 1962. The United States discovered that Soviet nuclear missiles were being installed in Cuba. President Kennedy then announced a blockade around the island, so that no new missiles could be brought there. However, the ships continued to come from the Soviet Union.
The tension was high and there was almost a clash between the United States and the Soviet Union. Presidents Kennedy and Khrushchev eventually reached an agreement. Missile installations in Cuba were dismantled and the United States pledged to respect Cuban sovereignty.
But in the meantime, Putin is threatening with those weapons. What does the Russian leader have at his disposal? Van Willigen explains that the country’s nuclear weapons can be divided into three systems. “You have nuclear weapons consisting of warheads screwed onto ballistic missiles. With them you can carry out an attack from the other side of the world,” says the associate professor. Such a missile can carry up to 5 or 10 warheads which can be launched individually.
“You also have planes with nuclear bombs. And submarines that have missiles with them. They can navigate the world unseen and launch an attack in any place imaginable.” These are systems that both Russia and the United States have at their disposal.
And the Russian arsenal contains much smaller nuclear weapons, also known as tactical nuclear weapons. “This is an important feature of the Russian arsenal. They have more than the Americans. The backlog is probably quite large.”
For example, nuclear weapons were once designed to function as land mines or as grenades to be fired. “Those are weapons of 1 to several kilotons of TNT or less. In comparison, large nuclear weapons have the explosive power of a few megatons of TNT.” Though those smaller weapons are not to be underestimated: “You still get a big blast and suffer from radiation and heat.”
Tactical weapons
So experts expect that if Putin deploys nuclear weapons, it will be such a tactical variant. Although there are bigger guns in the house. Defense expert Patrick Bolder says about it: “They have missiles with a range of 500 to 1000 kilometers. In April they showed Satan 2, a heavier ICBM. With that you can go to America. And that makes it unlikely at the same time. time, because it’s the stupidest thing you can do. “
A more realistic option, according to Bolder, is a rocket that is detonated into the atmosphere. “The so-called neutron bomb. It mainly causes radiation on the battlefield,” he says. “There is a shock wave, but no nuclear fallout where an area is inaccessible for decades. This is something Putin doesn’t want, especially with the areas they just annexed.”
Furthermore, according to Bolder, it is also questionable whether Russia has precision weapons to extract, for example, a column of tanks: “And how accurate they are. They have already used a lot and we also see that they are not that accurate.”
A threatening Putin, a Biden warning, how much do we have to worry about the situation? “It’s really a dangerous situation, so Biden is cautious about long-range arms supplies. With that, Russia itself can be attacked on its own turf,” Bolder said.
Nuclear abyss
Biden is doing everything possible to keep the conflict limited to the territory of Ukraine. “In order not to involve NATO and the West even more and to maintain the balance along the nuclear abyss,” continues Bolder.
Van Willigen adds: “If the Russians use a tactical nuclear weapon, it’s a show of power. In their minds this doesn’t have to lead to a full-scale nuclear war, but you can never know for sure.”
