Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – In the midst of the threat of stagflation and recession that haunts the world, it turns out that there are areas where the economy is safe from turmoil. It is even estimated that the region is still experiencing growth that exceeds projections for the world.
As is known, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned of the fall of some countries on the verge of recession. The IMF estimates that the world economy will grow only 3.2% this year and slow to 2.9% in 2023.
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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) sees developing countries in Asia continue to recover despite the risk of a slowdown. A number of Southeast Asian countries are expected to experience positive growth this year and next year.
Strong domestic demand in Indonesia and the Philippines contributed to a better 5.1% growth outlook for Southeast Asia this year, although weaker global demand outlook has led to a decline in forecasts for Southeast Asia. next year, “ADB said in its report. (5 / 10/2022).
The following are the countries of Southeast Asia (ASEAN) whose economies will continue to grow positively in 2023.
1. Vietnam
ADB estimates that Vietnam’s economic growth will grow by 6.7% next year. ADB, in its latest September release, revealed that Vietnam’s economy is doing quite well amid the global economic uncertainty.
“Restored global food supply chains will increase agricultural production this year, but high input costs will continue to hinder the recovery of the agricultural sector,” says the ADB report.
Additionally, weakening global demand slowed Vietnam’s production. However, according to ADB, the outlook for the sector remains bullish given the strong FDI in the sector.
2. Filipino
The Philippines is expected to record 6.3% growth in 2023.
“The economic recovery is expected to take hold this year and next, supported by the strengthening of investment and domestic consumption,” ADB said.
The economic recovery in the Philippines is influenced by factors such as the downward trend in Covid-19 cases and the easing of public mobility.
3. Cambodia
ADB kept its economic growth forecast for Cambodia at 5.3% in 2022, but lowered its forecast for 2023 to 6.2% from 6.5% due to weaker global growth.
Despite the cuts, Cambodia’s economic growth will remain high next year. The country’s economy will be supported by strong manufacturing performance, from apparel to footwear production, despite the economic slowdown in the United States.
Industrial production is expected to grow 9.1% this year, before falling to 8.6% in 2023 due to weaker external demand.
4. Indonesia
The Indonesian economy is estimated to grow by 5% in 2023, cut from the previous projection of 5.2%. This is in line with uncertain external conditions. This condition, according to ADB, could affect Indonesia’s export performance.
However, ADB estimates that Indonesia’s economic recovery is still on track.
5. Malaysia
The same goes for other Asean countries. Malaysia is expected to decline from 5.4% to 4.7% next year. However, when viewed from a regional perspective, this growth is better than Singapore and Brunei Darussalam, which are expected to grow by 3% and 3.6% respectively in 2023. The global economic slowdown is the reason for this cut.
On the other hand, ADB also estimates that India, Maldives, Uzbekistan and Georgia will still experience growth of more than 5% next year. Although it will suffer from high inflation, the Indian economy is expected to grow 7.2% in 2023.
Meanwhile, China, which is the second largest economy in the world, is expected to experience low growth next year. ADB has set a 4.5% growth forecast for China in 2023. Inflation is expected to rise next year due to rising food prices.
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