A second agency reported an increase in GERB’s advantage over PP
GERB increases its lead on “Let’s continue the change” and the battle for second place in the vote becomes more heated. They will enter the next parliament 8 parties – all there was so far, plus “Bulgarian Rise”. This is what the latest Mediana survey shows.
In two weeks, GERD’s advantage over PP jumped 4% to 10%. Lowering PP brings them closer to BSP, DPS and “Vazrazhdane”. The distribution from second to fifth place will depend on the mobilization of their supporters. “Mediana” specifies that DPS and “Vazrazhdane” have a significant vote hidden from the research and from many overseas voters, which is not reflected in the current research.
“Democratic Bulgaria” and “Bulgarian Rise” are firmly above the 4% barrier to enter parliament. Although there is a continuing outflow of voters from “There is such a people” (ITN), for now they retain their opportunities for representation in the National Assembly.
Maya Manolova’s party is still below the line, but she has the option to jump over the barrier.
“Mediana” expects a low turnout. Less than 80% of those who voted in previous elections (2.67 million voters) they say they will vote firmly again. No activation was observed among non-voters. Therefore, approximately 2.2 – 2.3 million voters (about 35% of registered voters) can be expected to stand before the polls in these elections. Therefore, the threshold for breaking the 4% barrier will drop significantly, to around 88-90,000 voters.
The low turnout in the country will significantly increase the weight of votes from abroad and voting abroad can present significant “surprises”.
If the prediction comes true, it will be very difficult to form a parliamentary majority.
In society there is an extremely accentuated anxiety for personal material well-being, the prospects for the country, fears for the coming winter and the immediate future. 12% of respondents fear not impoverishment, but the possibility of falling into extreme misery.
Along with this, fears of a war in the near future are growing. In just three weeks, the number of people seeing a danger of war in the near future has increased by 9%.
Among the politicians with the highest score is President Rumen Radev – 52%, followed by Boyko Borisov with 25% and Kornelia Ninova with 22%.
The research was conducted in the period – 16 – 22 September 2022 with 1008 people (18+ years) through a direct standardized interview and is representative of the adult population of the country. The study is a research project of the MEDIANA agency and was carried out with its own funds.
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