This hurricane season is very abnormal and right now a more relative anomaly is brewing near the Canary Islands, at which time it could affect over the weekend, the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) warned Wednesday. It is, explains its spokesman, Rubén del Campo, of a tropical wave that is moving from the interior of the African continent towards its west coast and which has a 50% chance, letter or cross, of becoming a cyclone – term that includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes depending on the strength of their winds from 60 to 120 kilometers per hour. If it finally does, it could affect the Canary Islands over the weekend in the form of heavy rain and winds, but it’s still too early to have an accurate forecast.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC), which is the body in charge of monitoring the formation, forecast and impact of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, is watching said wave, which, from the interior of Africa, can go out into the ocean near Cape Verde and move northwards over the oceanic waters in the next few days. On his journey north, Del Campo continues, “he will find favorable conditions for its intensification”, ie warm waters, so on Wednesday “the probability that it will become a cyclone in the next few days is estimated at 50%. Five days”. On Tuesday, the odds were 20%, early Wednesday morning increased to 40% and mid-morning to 50%.
After a summer with very little cyclonic activity, the Atlantic “woke up” in September. There is quite a bit of activity right now, with a tropical storm, a hurricane, and three systems developing.
Of these three, we are particularly interested in one.
To follow…
👇 pic.twitter.com/D8CiLXsCyg– AEMET (@AEMET_Esp) September 21, 2022
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At the moment the phenomenon has no name, since the NHC will only name it if it evolves into a cyclone. Tropical storms have been named so far this season Alessio, Bonnie y Colinthe famous hurricane Daniele, who came to Spain in a storm, and even hurricanes With you, Fiona y Gaston. Currently, the NHC monitors three disturbances, of which the one in the Canary Islands is the two and the second that has the highest chance of ending up being a cyclone, after another generated in the South Antilles, the probability of which is 90%. If one of the two becomes a cyclone, and it is possible according to Del Campo that the one in the Antilles formed earlier, it would be ermione. The next, which could be the Canary Islands, would receive the name of Ian.
The curious thing about this potential cyclone is not its seed, where it could form, but its possible trajectory. “Many tropical cyclones are formed by waves within the African continent exiting into the Atlantic via Cape Verde, what is rare is the probable movement parallel to the coast of Africa to the north. Normally, what they do is head out to sea and head to the Caribbean, ”Del Campo says.
This is yet another rarity of a season in which August had to wait for the first hurricane to appear. “This is the first time in 25 years that there are no hurricanes in June and July,” notes the forecaster. However, after a summer with very little cyclonic activity, “the Atlantic has woken up and there are already seven, to which two more could be added in the coming days”.
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Simulations of today’s model increase the potential for tropical cyclone formation and approach #Canary Islands.
Just 4 days earlier, the patterns begin to converge. But don’t forget that predictability is still low and there may be changes. pic.twitter.com/NuSRbZshbM
– German JJ Gonzalez (@glezjuanje) September 21, 2022
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Regardless of the scientific interest it arouses, the important thing is the consequences it will have. “The prediction of this type of tropical system and its trajectory is subject to many uncertainties and, although it is expected to move north parallel to the African coast, it is not yet possible to determine to what extent it will affect the Canary Islands,” Del Campo acknowledges. , to add that we have to wait for the NHC to offer its most likely cone of trajectory.
Right now, this disturbance is about 1,500 kilometers from the Canary Islands and the big question is how close it can get. The latest forecasts indicate “the cloud belts associated with the possible tropical cyclone that leaves rains” starting from Saturday on the islands, especially the western ones and Gran Canaria. They would be “weak to moderate” that day, but they could “gain intensity the next day”. It is also possible that it can lead to very strong gusts of wind on the peaks. The first phase of a cyclone, a tropical depression, sustained a wind speed of 62 kilometers per hour, 63 and 118 is a tropical storm and from 119 a hurricane. Today “the probability that the most intense winds will hit the archipelago is very low”, that is, that it will hit the islands or that the eye gets very close. “As it becomes more predictable” in the coming days, Aemet will report on the evolution of the perturbation.
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