Biden can make Trump’s plan for the Middle East work

Bloomberg’s Opinion – More than 19 Israelis have been killed and more than 50 injured in armed attacks by Palestinians in Israel and the West Bank since March. The wave of violence is unlike anything seen for years. But it was too predictable, as the political stalemate that hit both Israel and the Palestinian Authority and Washington’s aloof attitude clouded the prospects for a long-sought diplomatic solution.

The Israeli army, in response to the attacks, carried out almost daily raids on Palestinian hotspots in the West Bank. More than 80 Palestinians were killed in the ensuing firefights. Some of them, Israeli internal security chief Ronen Bar acknowledged, were innocent bystanders caught in the crossfire.

This militant group, largely inspired by Palestinian social media, is too young to remember the bitter fruits of the Palestinian revolt against Israel in the early 2000s. Bar calls them “a generation of sheep without a shepherd.”

This is not a bad description of the Israeli government or the Palestinian Authority. On November 1, a bitterly divided Israel will vote for the fifth time in three and a half years. According to the latest polls, these elections, like the previous ones, will end in a draw and the creation of a weak coalition, unable to do anything but extricate itself and postpone issues related to the West Bank.

Meanwhile, Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas, 87, was elected for what was supposed to be a four-year term in 2005 and remains in office. Under his rule, the Palestinians split into rival factions in Gaza and the West Bank. The eventual departure of Abbas will almost certainly precipitate a bloody battle for the succession. Some Israeli experts believe the Palestinian Authority will not survive such a battle.

The situation in the West Bank has not reached the proportions of the intifada, but it could.

“It is important not to lose sight of what could happen if the Palestinian situation worsens, especially in the West Bank,” US Ambassador Tom Nides recently said. “I fundamentally believe that for Israel to remain a democratic state, we need a two-state solution. I want to change the situation on the pitch to make it possible, to keep that vision alive ”.

The two-state solution is less a vision than a mantra. After more than 40 years, it is an always dissatisfied New Year’s resolution. The Arab world has lost patience with the ideal of a Palestinian state. Europe is too busy with its existential problems to offer anything more than an occasional talk about the two states. And the United States, the only country with real influence in the region, has so far kept its distance.

It is difficult to blame President Joe Biden for his caution. It has seen President Donald Trump’s administration waste four years of active diplomacy trying to reach a settlement in the West Bank. That offer included 70% of the West Bank for an unarmed Palestinian mini-state and huge foreign investment. Abbas rejected it outright. Biden can’t offer more. Israel (regardless of which weak government is in power) would almost certainly refuse to accept it.

Yet the United States must be involved. A modified version of the Trump plan, under a different name, could at least get people talking again. An infusion of US aid could placate the Palestinians and strengthen the PA’s efforts to maintain order in the West Bank. This, in turn, could relieve Israel of the need for aggressive military operations.

They are palliative measures, no doubt. But they are better than the alternative. Left to fend for themselves, the insensitive Israeli political leaders, the stubborn president of the Palestinian Authority and the young warriors of the West Bank could drift like sheep into a conflict that could enlighten the Middle East. And, for better or for worse, the United States is the only pastor available.

This notice does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editors or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

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