(Original title: High pig prices support farm profits to reach a new high during the year in the fourth quarter or there is still room for upside)
Financial Associated Press, September 19 (Reporters Liu Jian and Wang Ping’an)Influenced by the continued fluctuation in live pig prices, the profit from live pig farming reached its highest level of the year. Reporters from the Financial Associated Press have learned from various interviews that the price of pigs is expected to rise further during the high season for live pigs in the second half of the year. Although there is pressure to increase the price of feed on the cost side, the impact is expected to be limited and the profit from pig farming in the fourth quarter will remain at a high level.
Profits from agriculture hit a new high for the year
Mysteel agricultural products statistics show that as of September 15, the average weekly profit of self-breeding and self-breeding was 858.29 yuan per capita; before 5.5 months, purchased piglets were making a profit of 947.81 yuan per capita at the current price of the pig, and the profit level reached the average level in 2021.
(Source of Self-Paying and Self-Sufficient Profit Chart: Shanghai Ganglian)
In a pig farm exchange group that a Financial Associated Press reporter is in, most outdoor breeders believe the farm’s profit is in a relatively high and reasonable area, and are satisfied with it. The data match.
A prominent person at Wen’s (300498.SZ) also told the Financial Associated Press: “Currently, the farm’s profit is at a high level during the year.”
In general, the profits of backyard farmers are higher than those of large pig farms. Wu Menglei, a pig analyst at Shanghai Ganglian Agricultural Products Division, told the Financial Associated Press: “In terms of the profit difference between free-range and collective farms, the farming costs of small and medium-sized free-range farmers are generally lower than those of collective farms. The average profit of free-range accounts is higher than that of collective farms.
Farm profit reached its highest level of the year, mainly supported by the high pig price which has continued to strengthen since the third quarter. According to data from China Pig Network, as of September 19, the price of live pigs (three external yuan) was 24.02 yuan / kg, a year-over-year increase of 91.24% and a monthly increase of 11. .05%.
There is still an upside in the fourth quarter
Looking forward to the live pig market in the fourth quarter, an important person from Wen’s Co., Ltd. pointed out: “In general, the market in the second half of the year is better than the first half of the year. There are more holidays in the year. the second half of the year, and the weather will turn cold. “
“Individually, I am optimistic about the market in the fourth quarter and demand for pork is expected to be relatively large.” Wu Mennglei said that this year’s New Year’s Festival is relatively early and that the corresponding pickles and enemas will also be anticipated within half a month. While the outbreak has some impact, stiff New Year demand is still there, so the October price was relatively weak and the market started to recover after November, hitting its second peak of the year in December.
Zeng Zihua, chief analyst at Zhuyi.com, also said: “Although the profit from live pig farming is currently at a high level, it is possible that it will continue to grow in the fourth quarter, peaking this year.”
It is worth noting that recently, due to the continuous increase in the price of feed materials, many feed companies have announced price increases, which has put some pressure on farm profits.
However, according to Wu Menglei, rising feed material and finished product prices have relatively little impact on farm profits, so there’s no need to worry too much. On the one hand, the rise in commodity prices is relatively controllable and there is little room for continued price increases: it will continue to grow and there is still room for farm profits to grow throughout the year. “In my opinion, the profit of the pig farm in the fourth quarter will remain at a high level, between 800-1,000 yuan per capita.”
However, the state has repeatedly proposed stable production and price protection and various control measures; at the same time, if the market consensus is too high, there could be slaughtering, slaughtering, secondary fattening and centralized deliveries of frozen products, etc. Price movements bring some uncertainty.
Wu Menglei said the increase in piglet births could lead to lower supply at the end of the year. According to statistics, the monthly variation in piglet births from June to July is around 2% -3%, which will increase the expectation of supply growth at the end of the year; 9- The market breakdown period in October (demand recession and periodic price lows) stimulated the market entry in large numbers of the second wave of secondary fattening. there is no lack of weight gain and concentrated slaughter and slaughter caused by the strong consistency of market opinions.
(editor Liu Yan)
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