In the night from Monday to Tuesday, fighting broke out along the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenia accuses the neighboring country of an attack, but Azerbaijan says it is only responding to Armenian provocations.
The conflict goes back a long time
The quarrel between the two countries of the former Soviet Union goes back a long time. But this week’s hostilities are the deadliest in years. Azerbaijan already reports 71 soldiers killed, Armenia 105. The question remains whether the ceasefire that has been concluded will last.
However, this conflict in the Caucasus can also affect us, says Agha Bayramov, professor of international relations at the University of Groningen: instability in the region is lurking now that “mighty Russia” has been weakened by the war in Ukraine. And this puts Europe’s energy supply at even greater risk.
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“Azerbaijan supplies Europe with oil and gas. If this conflict escalates, pipelines could be targeted, just as in previous conflicts, causing Europe even more energy problems,” Bayramov says.
Bulgaria, Greece and Italy in particular depend on Azerbaijani gas. If supplies falter, these countries will be pushed back into Russia’s arms, Bayramov says, further complicating Europe’s energy crisis. Azerbaijan has also entered into agreements to supply more gas to Europe.
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According to experts, the fact that the flames are rekindling between Armenia and Azerbaijan is no coincidence, according to experts. Russia is engaged in the war in Ukraine, where the country faces serious military setbacks.
More confidence
Images of Ukraine’s success around Kharkov, where the territory was recaptured by the Russians and Russian flags are now publicly engulfed in flames, are also seen in the former Soviet states. “The image of the ‘mighty Russian army’ turned out to be a joke,” Bayramov said.
According to him, this gives more self-confidence to the former Soviet states that are still heavily influenced by Russia. But it can also have a negative effect: if conflicts flare up in the region, Russia has few options left to act as “arbiter”. Bayramov therefore thinks that other regional powers, such as Turkey and Iran, will further expand their influence.
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It affects the role of the CSTO, a regional military alliance in which Russia dominates and which is comparable to NATO. “CSTO Armenia member asked for help, but help didn’t come,” says Chris Colijn, Eastern Europe expert at RTL Nieuws.
Pacifier
In mass demonstrations just before the war in Ukraine in another former Soviet state, Kazakhstan, the CSTO helped put things in order. “Russia wants to be the great regional peacekeeping force, but because of the war in Ukraine it doesn’t have enough military strength,” says Colijn.
Moscow is still trying to calm things down diplomatically, but without a military baton behind the door, agreements on, for example, a ceasefire can also be more easily violated, according to Colijn.
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Test in Russia
It is unclear what exactly is behind the escalation of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Colijn thinks Azerbaijan wants to test how far the country can go now that Russia, which supports Armenia, is weakened.
That conflict has been about the disputed mountainous enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan since the 1980s. The area is recognized as part of Azerbaijan but is ruled by ethnic Armenians living there.
If the conflict now gets out of hand, Russia will also find itself diametrically opposed to Turkey, which supports Azerbaijan. A peace agreement between the two countries has been in preparation for years, but for the moment, peace seems far away.
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