[Tokyo 14 Reuters]-
With the US consumer price index (CPI) outperforming market expectations and the core index continuing to rise, it is difficult to be bullish on short-term stocks. On the domestic demand side, the rise in wages and notional rents is persistent and the pace of the slowdown in inflation is likely to be slower than initially expected by the market.
However, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. Of course, there are some positives and negatives to market expectations. The underlying trend is not unnatural and the year-on-year rate of increase was lower than the previous month.
US equities may have reacted slightly earlier than the US Special Liquidation Index (SQ) calculation this week. When the CPI was used as an excuse to close the stock market, a temporary slump in supply and demand, such as the launch of options, could have led to a steep drop.
On the other hand, the dollar is strong against the yen. If the dollar / yen exchange rate stabilizes at the 140 yen level, it will be a significant factor in increasing the profits of domestic export companies. The government is trying to accelerate the real recovery of inbound tourism, which will also benefit from the depreciation of the yen. The Nikkei Stock Average is also in good shape with the 75-day line breaking above the 200-day moving average line. For the foreseeable future, the 200-day line passing through the 27,400 yen level could be the low.
At the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September, if the official interest rate forecasts shown by members this time move upward, stock prices will be negative, so caution is needed. However, it is difficult to speculate that the pace of interest rate hikes will accelerate further as there is no major change in the underlying trend. Once the event passes, the market will fall and the share price may rise.
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