Things don’t seem to be going well for the Russian military. Released yesterday The Russian Defense Ministry has released a map showing that Russian troops have almost completely left the Kharkov region. And the loss of land doesn’t seem to stop. According to Kiev, Ukrainian fighters have regained more than 20 places in the past 24 hours.
Bad news falls badly
The losses on the Russian side have several causes, explains former ground forces commander Mart de Kruif. Zelensky, for example, gives his army chiefs a lot of freedom in conducting their operations.
This does not apply to the Russian military, where there is a culture of fear. The army leadership therefore does not dare to bring bad news and will not feel the freedom to discuss the feasibility of certain objectives, according to De Kruif. “I wonder if Putin is well informed.”
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The Ukrainian army command also has some experience gained in the UK and the US. This can be seen in the initiative that has been with Ukraine in the last month. “They started planning how to deceive the Russians.” Russia is therefore only the one reacting to what Ukraine is doing. “They were lured to Kherson with a red rag and then Ukraine hit in Kharkov.”
Two other much-discussed factors are the long-range weapons Ukrainians have received from the West and their inexhaustible motivation. Putin has managed to attract new soldiers to the front with a salary of around 4000-5000 euros a month, “but recruiting people for money doesn’t work,” De Kruif firmly says. “For money, your motivation at the front will be gone after a day.”
The critical pro-Kremlin bloggers
The fact that the Russian military is noticeably weakened after six months has not escaped the attention of the country itself. The criticisms are heard from various angles. Nationalist military bloggers, for example, have been making themselves heard for some time. Russia correspondent Eva Hartog explains that they are now receiving more attention because Russia is now in a precarious position. “A new chapter has begun and this is humiliating for Russia.”
There has been little movement on the front lines in recent months. And suddenly everything has changed since last week. Russia did not see it coming and the soldiers seem to have fled. “Now they have to explain it and this is not part of their history. The Kremlin therefore remains extraordinarily silent.”
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Far right Igor Girkin, like others, began to express criticism a long time ago, says Russian expert Hubert Smeets. The former Russian intelligence colonel became commander of pro-Russian separatist forces in 2014 and is regarded as the instigator of the war in Ukraine that year. You may also know him as the prime suspect in the downing of Flight MH17.
He is one of the most prominent voices in an increasingly loud group of ultranationalist military bloggers. They criticize the Kremlin for failing to achieve tactical goals.
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Both Smeets and Hartog point out that critics do not condemn the war itself. They just want to see a victory in the ongoing war, explains Hartog. They simply disagree with how that goal is achieved “and aim for escalation”. According to them, the administration and armament should be better at ridding Ukraine of the “Nazis”.
For example, they want some generals to be fired, Smeets says. For example, the far right Girkin has repeatedly called for the dismissal of the defense minister. Hartog says some bloggers are even calling for the death sentences of some army leaders. But the cries for help will have little impact on the unwavering Kremlin.
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Putin remains out of danger
It is also important to understand who nationalist military bloggers are expressing their criticism to. They only aim their arrows at the Ministry of Defense and the leadership of the army. Putin himself is out of the question. This is a Russian tradition, explains Smeets. “Putin has a halo of a kind of tsar. The tsar is good, but he’s surrounded by idiots.”
Yet today Putin seems to have been directly hit from a different angle. Municipal deputies from 17 districts of Moscow and St. Petersburg demand the resignation of the Russian president. These local politicians together represent several million Russians and signed a public statement stating, among other things, that “President Putin’s actions harm Russia’s future”. According to The Insider, a Russian research publication which operates from Latvia, as it has been banned in Russia since July.
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Talk show hysteria
The criticism is heard not only on social media, but also on state television. Although the Russian news is silent, the same is not true for talk shows. newspapers present bad news like a deliberate tactical choice: the grouping of armies has the purpose of being able to hit harder later. Yet there has been no silence on talk shows for months. “Hysteria” is a fitting name for Smeets. That hysteria has increased in the past few weeks, she says.
And something special happened last weekend, says Hartog. “A war expert was very critical of a pro-Kremlin TV channel and went on the air.” The way he criticized is not allowed in Russia, let alone on state television. “He said it in a delicate context, he put his finger on the sore spot and made a completely different sound.”
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Although the criticisms in Russia are considerable, tomorrow there will be no riots, Hartog shades. “Most Russians didn’t realize the losses were suffered, let alone how it happened.” They watch state TV news following the Kremlin line. “So Putin seems to be managing to let people care as little as possible about the war in Ukraine.”
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