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President Russia Vladimir Putin. Photo/news.harvard.eu
The Russian president launched an invasion of Ukraine in late February, citing his desire to liberate the separatist Donbas region, but has so far struggled to achieve his ultimate goal after receiving a stronger-than-expected response from the Ukrainian military. The fighting remains concentrated in eastern Ukraine.
The invasion received international backlash amid reports of alleged war crimes and a lack of justification. Most Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia, including on oil, Russia’s main export, in the weeks following the launch of the invasion. The sanctions are seen as a blow to the Russian economy and Putin’s leadership, although many Russians continue to support their president.
But Neumann, a Norwegian political scientist who studies Russian politics, predicts the fallout could contribute to the initial phase of Putin’s downfall. He revealed this in an interview with Radio Free Europe.
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He pointed to various factors that contributed negatively to the Russian economy, including sanctions, companies fleeing after the invasion and a reduction in the willingness of other countries to accept Russian exports.
“So, since Putin’s tenure began 22 years ago, very little, if anything, has really happened to the economy. And I find it amazing that a trained Marxist like Putin doesn’t understand that material factors are of the essence,” he said NewsweekSunday (31/7/2022).
However, Neumann warns, it is difficult to predict exactly when the regime will collapse or what could happen next.
“His regime has done a thorough job of eradicating organized liberal thought and work in Russia. Bad for the country, good for Putin’s regime,” he said.
Also read: Former British intelligence boss believes this man will replace Putin
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