Is the AEX secretly working on something beautiful?
It differs a bit per book, but according to the booklets the stock markets pass six months to a year on the economy. Low point of recession – who still doubts that? – should be sometime this winter…? The ways of mr. Market are and will remain unavoidable in any case.
Because the increase can also just a dead end dead cat bounce to be. Mind you, it’s all in local currency. The AEX in dollars and Wall Street in euros paint a completely different picture.
The worse news and macro data become, the louder #AEX seems to be increasing in recent weeks. Mss watches that stubborn Mr. Market over again #recession in #kleumwinter go, who’s to say. AEX is ahead of all troops, even Wall Street tech indices pic.twitter.com/DReyzlOTtN
— Arend Jan Kamp (@ArendJanKamp) July 27, 2022
Speaking of recession, will the Fed raise three (75% consensus) or four quarters (25%) at 8:00 PM? The latter has never happened before and with that the Fed may be throwing the economy under the bus itself: too bad, but the fight against inflation comes first. something like that. You can, but there’s also a dollar.
At four quarters it can just shoot through parity with the euro? You see the results of corporate America this week, there are significant currency gaps here and there (Microsoft for example). See also Unilever yesterday, which reported a 4.9% tailwind. They are against Americans.
Of course you can follow that interest rate decision and press conference live on IEX. Here is the forecast for the interest rate decision from over a year:
Why look so far ahead? These interest rates are not even that much higher than those for tonight. The Fed Raises This Spring And Summer quick & dirty and then see again.
This has a lot to do with recession fears and partly for that reason falling inflation expectations:
Then energy has to be a bit along and that’s how we arrive at today’s bad news. There is and remains a quarrel with Russia and the EU about gas and the Dutch natural gas future TTF responds to that. And so there is yet another thorn in the graph. Is there such a thing as a technical hedgehog pattern?
The accumulated commodities in the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index are also no longer cooperating with regard to inflation, they are rising again. And in euros it goes even faster with the rising dollar.
The broad market then, driven according to the networks by notably lower numbers than expected from Alphabet and Microsoft last night. Tonight is Meta and tomorrow there is Apple and Amazon. The investor hand is apparently quickly filled today, because usually we are all merciless to setbacks.
Interesting about the numbers is that there seem to be only two flavors this round: earnings warners and outlook boosters. Exaggerated of course, but there are many outliers and that indicates that the business community is also skipping this year. Markets and macroeconomics are difficult to estimate in 2022.
Clocked in at the Amsterdam lock at 5:40 PM and the Big Board is excited for the Fed, say. Especially the Nasdaq 100. Pay special attention to that dollar tonight.
Here the interest rates and they may confirm the Fed, recession and inflation story.
Just look at our ten-year interest rate. It was exactly one hundred basis points higher a month ago and perhaps the upward trend is already in the past.
Beursplein 5
Our shares then: KPN (part of the outlook enhancers camp) is not doing much on today’s better-than-expected figures. For those who are still looking for a very defensive (dividend) share, or are there alternatives? Is reading.
KPN has confidence in its own strength #KPN https://t.co/HlH0I8mmlw
— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) July 27, 2022
Yes, it can be with Walmart, but this week’s profit warning is a very fat one. So what’s going on with this giant?
Walmart majors in profit warnings #Walmart https://t.co/psLdxAzQHG
— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) July 27, 2022
The Little VOCalso renowned for its dividend:
Acomo knows how to hold its own # ACOMO https://t.co/rClwuHH5Bw
— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) July 27, 2022
Microsoft is sensitive to the expensive dollar and has more and more competition:
Microsoft has no recession fears #MicrosoftCorp https://t.co/heLq3ZzD6X
— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) July 27, 2022
The advice with reductions for Nedap, ASMI and – really sit down for that, what a hoot – JustEatTakeaway. KPN receives an increase. Click on the picture for details.
Vopak’s figures are received lukewarm. Who is still warm to this fund? There has been no momentum at all for a while. Anything else?
- First Adyen, something like that?
#Adyen was and is the most expensive (growth) stock #AEX and goes fast today with no news. The picture is (technically) looking better and better.
Show immediately how difficult timing is. There is already +45% since (temporary?) bottom and then you don’t know yet whether this is the low pic.twitter.com/4sRpmbpszT— Arend Jan Kamp (@ArendJanKamp) July 27, 2022
- Just one more and more or less the same story applies here:
Chippers #ASML #ASMI in #Iron are also choosing wide suds today, but sector index #SOX skims past the top of the downtrend channel and bear market is still intact#AEX pic.twitter.com/nXTmAtnHpx
— Arend Jan Kamp (@ArendJanKamp) July 27, 2022
- Wolters Kluwer grinds against all time € 10,25 and will put down a new, fresh top on the final basis
- Unilever may fall on KraftHeinz (-7.5% on numbers) and then Ahold Delhaize is not far away? US grutters are having a hard time
- Philips, even today it’s nothing again
- The (on paper) cyclical Aalberts is working on something beautiful in the short term
- Alfen sharpens the all-time high for a while, now €109.85
- BASF (-1.1%) is reducing production due to expensive energy, but OCI is heating up nicely
- Basic-Fit recovers from one to advice
- Flow Traders does not want again
- Tomorrow CM.com will have numbers, always moves hard, but has been around and near our own soil for over a month
- Fastned is secretly rising again, but there is still a lot of work to be done in its own graphics
You know, not only will today be a little late with Fed and Meta, tomorrow will be very early again: super thursday! In my morning call I focus on Shell, AC Mittal, Unibail, Arcadis and CM.com. AMG is by the way at 13:00, in the middle of the day. Why, how does she make it up…?
- 07:00 Arcadis – Second quarter figures
- 07:00 ArcelorMittal – Second quarter figures
- 07:00 Intertrust – Second quarter figures
- 07:00 Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield – Second quarter figures
- 07:30 CM.com – Q2 Figures
- 07:30 Ordina – Second quarter figures
- 08:00 Relx – Second quarter figures
- 08:00 Shell – Second quarter figures
- 00:00 AMG – Second quarter figures
- 00:00 GeoJunxion – Annual figures
- 18:00 Euronext – Second quarter figures
- 18:00 Vastned – Figures second quarter
Finally, let’s take a look at today’s scoreboard. Not one double digit drop! In fact, that’s already a win. See you soon at the Fed.
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