New York suffers more from the pandemic crisis than any other city in the United States. This is the conclusion of a very detailed investigation by the New York Times, published on June 21. According to figures released by the daily, New York lost 11.8% of its jobs between February 2020 and April 2021. To be compared at a US average of 4.4%. The city is far ahead of Los Angeles (-10.5%), San Francisco (-10.3%), Boston (-9.9%) or even Chicago (-6.7%).
Disappearance of the white collar windfall
Journalists who have investigated in the city indeed believe that New York’s heavy reliance on work-related travel and tourism are currently an obstacle to its economic recovery. They estimate that thousands of jobs in restaurants, bars, shops and outlets on the street are indeed linked to the presence of a million “commuters” working daily in Manhattan.
However, according to the « Partnership for New York City »an economic promotion group, only 12% of employees were back in Manhattan at the end of May. The figure should reach 29% at the end of July with the normalization of the daily. Yet the Partnership for New York City expects only 62% of office workers were in person at the end of September. And again, 71% of companies only bring in their staff three times a week.
A situation that therefore endangers hundreds of companies. Because this figure of 62% in fact translates into the disappearance of 300,000 consumers in the city. The authorities estimate that nearly half of the SMEs in the catering or tourism sector have already disappeared.
Same observation for the tourist manna that was Manhattan. According to the NYC & Company Tourist Board, New York had attracted 66.6 million visitors in 2019. International visitor numbers were 13.5 million, down slightly from 2018. UK, France and Germany were the top three source markets in Europe.
International tourism in decline
Business travel accounted for 20% of all arrivals in 2019 – i.e. 13.6 million travellers. Tourism thus generated more than 47 billion dollars in direct expenditure, including 23.1 billion from international markets.
The weight of tourism has – unsurprisingly – fallen sharply in 2020. Last year, New York welcomed only 22.3 million travelers, down 67%. The fall is even more brutal for international tourism. The 2.4 million international visitors – mainly concentrated in the months of January and February, thus represent a drop of more than 82.2%. Again, a decline that affects the entire travel sector – from airlines to hotels, taxis or restaurants.
NYC & Company is relatively unoptimistic about a rapid international recovery. According to his projections, total arrivals are expected to stand at 36.4 million this year – of which only 4.6 million are international arrivals. New York would return to a level of arrivals similar to 2019 only in 2023.
However, the recovery would be even slower for international tourismI. This would only return to its 2019 level between 2024 and 2025. In 2022, it would thus reach 8.3 million visitors and 11.2 million in 2023.
The same slow evolution for business travel. It had fallen to 3.3 million visitors in 2020 – representing a market share of 14.8% of all arrivals. It should not return to its 2019 level before 2025 according to NYC & Company.
The slow return of international visitors and business travelers could continue to weigh down the economic future of the American megalopolis for a long time.
Unless Joe Biden finally opens his bordersespecially to European travellers. The American President had mentioned in March the possible reopening of the borders in May. Since then, the Biden administration has been deafeningly silent. Pressure is mounting within hotel and airline lobbies for, at a minimum, the publication of a roadmap on an international reopening. With the watermark of a possible loosening of the vice in September…
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