A team of researchers from the Julius Maximilian University of Würzburg presented a data set on Monday that can predict the effects of climate change in Lower Franconia with an accuracy of a few square meters: “BigData@Geo”. With the help of the data, farmers and foresters in particular should be able to adapt their strategies for farmland more quickly in the future. In the “BigData@Geo” project, which was funded by the European Union, computer scientists and geographers from the University of Würzburg collected data from the entire region for five years. As a central result, they presented the climate report for Lower Franconia in the central lecture hall and seminar building.
Indications of future climate development
On more than 70 pages, the Lower Franconia climate report explains possible development paths for near-surface air temperature and precipitation up to the end of the 21st century. According to the researchers’ calculations, the mean temperatures in the entire district of Lower Franconia could rise by up to four degrees by the end of the 21st century. According to the scientists, such knowledge is often found in complicated data sets.
Therefore, the team from the University of Würzburg has refined existing models regionally and tailored them to the needs of agriculture and forestry. “Some people don’t have the IT skills, nor the IT resources, to get the information they really need,” says Professor Heiko Paeth, who was in charge of the project. “For example, changing the number of hot days on our own fields. That’s exactly what we did.” The necessity is self-explanatory: “We now have several years in a row where it’s far too dry in Lower Franconia and have a real water problem,” said Paeth BR24. At the University of Würzburg he heads the professorship for geography with a focus on climatology.
Agricultural and forestry companies as cooperation partners
With “BigData@Geo”, the university has created a web portal that breaks down projections from various climate models on the Lower Franconia region and makes them easily understandable for everyone. A total of 15 cooperating small and medium-sized companies from the region were involved. Among the partners present was Holger Pfaff from the Main orchard bee cooperative. He takes more than terrible news from the university workshop: “I’ll say the positive thing, that we can hopefully assume that we have the same amount of precipitation or water available in the overall annual balance,” said Paff. You have to deal with the water differently now.
Use rainy winter months for water storage
His cooperative wants to help maintain and revitalize orchards. To do this, the water must be better buffered, especially in the rainy winter months, so that supplies accumulate that can be distributed in a targeted manner in midsummer, according to Pfaff. The projections of the university have shown that everyone will have to reconsider their choice of varieties. Because in the future, Lower Franconia will no longer be a suitable habitat for many an old variety that swallows a lot of water.
Gloomy prospects for the Schwarzach basin
“We already have temperatures that are over a degree higher on average in the Schwarzach basin. If there were another two degrees or more, that would be terrible for us,” said Father Christoph Gerhard on site BR24. As cellarer, as the economic manager of the Münsterschwarzach Abbey, he is responsible for the approximately 330 hectares of land that the abbey farms. Cultivation ranges from grain, corn, potatoes to sugar beet.
“I wouldn’t have imagined the violence that comes with it.” Father Christoph from the Münsterschwarzach Abbey
The university approached the abbey in order to collect data on the development of agriculture together. According to a scenario calculated by the researchers, the average summer temperature on the abbey’s cultivation areas could even rise by around three degrees to over 22 degrees by the end of the 21st century. Due to the persistent dry period since May, Father Christoph fears a bad harvest this year: “So far, things are looking really bad for the sugar beets. And not really good for the corn either,” says the cellarer of the Münsterschwarzach Abbey. “I wouldn’t have imagined how intense it would be,” he says. “If we don’t do anything, then these are real horror scenarios that you can call up.”
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