This is how Putin wins the energy war

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Here at home goes the full debate about electricity exports and low levels in Norwegian reservoirs. Europe is preparing for the worst possible thing – for Russia to close gas exports to Europe completely.

In Norway, the possibility is aired that the electricity situation this winter may become so precarious that the industry will have to cut off electricity for periods.

In Germany, this is already a reality.

The price of gas has become so high that it is not possible to run parts of the industry. The German trade balance is in the red – an unfamiliar situation. Germany, the engine of the European economy, coughs and rakes.

It has been barely five months since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In this strikingly short time, words such as European solidarity and political cooperation have gone from being words of praise to being the exact opposite.

Or to be more precise: These are terms that for many now only apply to military issues.

Energy policy is separate, although it is a key ingredient in the war in Ukraine – and crucial in the conflict between Russia and the rest of Europe.

Putin’s iron grip across Europe, through gas exports, is thus now showing itself in full force. Norwegian politicians’ calls – from the Center Party to KrF and Rødt, to stop power exports, are part of the picture. The high gas price on the continent is a main reason for high Norwegian electricity prices.

The will to European unity completely withers in the face of the energy crisis. That is to say: it withers in those who are not so preoccupied with European unity.

The EU is now trying to take a number of steps to meet the threat of a complete shutdown of gas from Russia. This week, gas imports in the important North Stream 1 pipeline were closed for maintenance. The fear is that it will not reopen after the announced ten days of maintenance work have been completed.

Then it will be very difficult for European countries to fill their gas reserves up to 80 percent capacity by 1 November, a requirement the EU has set for its member states. Now the warehouses are on average 60 percent full, Xi Nan tells Dagbladet – gas and electricity market analyst at the analysis company Rystad Energy.

The EU’s overall approach is a very difficult project, Nan describes. The gas contracts are entered into by companies and at the national level. Attempts at coordination can get bogged down in a crisis situation where the gas taps are closed from Russia, and agreements in different countries go hand in hand.

One of the biggest Putin’s miscalculations before the invasion of Ukraine are said to be underestimating the strength of European unity.

It still holds up. The EU recently struck through its sixth sanction package.

The strange thing is that the same politicians who with great pathos support the sanctions policy, and often criticize Germany and other European countries that are more restrained (because they are dependent on Russian gas), do not hesitate for a second to advocate protectionist measures in energy policy.

One thus supports the sanctions, but is not willing to help pay the price: Uncertainty in the energy markets.

It is also striking how easy and effective it is to argue for protectionist measures, on a failing basis. In the Norwegian debate in recent weeks, it has been said that Norwegian reservoirs are being emptied, in favor of exports.

The figures show that exports not at all higher than usual, in fact, net exports so far this year are lower than last year and the year before. The power that is now exported is also mainly river power and wind power – which does not affect the degree of filling in the reservoirs.

The Norwegian government, like all other countries’ authorities, is primarily responsible for its own citizens. It is often the crown argument that is raised when crises escalate. But that responsibility also includes maintaining good relations with our most important allies and trading partners.

We may need crisis solutions, but they must be designed in a way that does not unnecessarily weaken or destroy our international relations.

Politicians love to make oneself tall, dark and energetic. The Center Party’s Geir Pollestad writes in a article here in the newspaper that “empty Norwegian water reservoirs” make it easier for Putin to “gag Europe for obedience”. There is a strong overestimation of the significance of both Norway and hydropower, but it is first and foremost to turn the picture completely upside down. European cooperation has been destroyed, which will make it easy for Putin to gag Europe.

The strength of Europe lies in cooperation. This is how Russia’s power and influence are matched and surpassed. It is better to hang together than to hang separately.

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