Bitcoin (BTC) is holding very nicely above $19,000. And the rate even went above the psychological $20,000. So when I look at the structure of the market over the past few weeks, I like it. That is, it could be the beginning of a bear market rally. If a rally occurs, the longer we consolidate the local bottom, the stronger the rally will be.
Afternoon update
I have no idea why at the moment, but the whole market has, in the vernacular, gone awry. The dollar index pumped by about 1.35%, which is perhaps the biggest increase in the last few months. Chilli risk off is suddenly maximal.
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Bitcoin a sentiment
By the way, it is being published tomorrow FOMC minutes. And it is very likely that there may be details that shake the markets in the vernacular. Therefore, it is good to prepare for more volatile moment. Which depends on the information that will be heard in the FOMC minutes. If there is nothing new, it is bullish for Bitcoin and other markets. If there are any “hawk” news, it can sweep us away again.
Otherwise, according to the attached graph, the sentiment is starting to improve slightly. And that is precisely the factor that we need to improve. We want market participants not to be so afraid. When they are afraid, they don’t buy. And this despite the fact that we are at a potential local minimum. Many speculators got caught and are still licking their wounds.
Once it is stock market psychology in depression, at least the local bottom is simply approaching. It has always worked that way throughout history. Just as nothing rises to the sky, so nothing can steadily decline forever. We can of course continued from the current places in decline. But given the context, a rally against the trend makes more sense.
Of course, psychology is extremely difficult to analyze. You can follow social networks as much as possible, but even there you are in a kind of social bubble. Then there is the attached index, but it should also be taken with a grain of salt. That’s why it’s the best barometer for stock market psychology price action. This is the most relevant.
Current situation on 1D BTC/USD
I marked a few places with arrows on the BTC daily chart. They are actually reactions proving where there is a sufficiently proactive demand to stop the exchange rate decline. Which happens to be around $19,000. We even had a small Pin bar created on June 30 with solid volumes. The market immediately reacted to this with aggressive growth, but in the end it turned into price action Pump & Dump.
In short, it didn’t work out and the result is that the first July daily candle is bearish. However, sellers are still unable to push the price down. As long as Bitcoin holds above the current support, a bounce is still possible. Additionally, Bitcoin has been consolidating for quite some time. By that I mean that we have created a small one here market balancewhich proves i volume profile. So the movement up or down can be really intense.
That is, Bitcoin has to get out of that small defined trading range. If it goes up, the first obstacle is the local trend line. Maybe this will finally be the impetus for further growth.
Anyway, I don’t think BTC’s consolidation at current levels will last long. Something is already brewing. In short, the side trading margin is quite small. A course in similarly small structures will not last very long.
In conclusion
I know the current situation is very boring. And it’s already weighing on me. Attention gradually decreases and one has to force oneself more and more. But if you can stand it, you will have an advantage over others.
P.S.: As I said recently, my girlfriend set up a LinkedIn profile for me, which I am still tweaking and will be tweaking for some time. Anyway, I’ll be putting my “better” posts there from the various sites I publish on. In general, I want to be active there, because FB is not very suitable for that. If you want to add me there, just find me. Or in the desktop version of the cryptomagazine there is a titer icon with a link directly under my BIO for each article.
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ATTENTION: None of the information in the article is investment advice. The analysis does not attempt to predict future price developments. It serves exclusively as educational content on how to think about the market. Do your own research and analysis before making any investment, you always trade at your own risk. The kryptomagazin.cz team strongly recommends individual consideration of risks!
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