Russian President Vladimir Putin will give a very important and very interesting speech on Friday, Russian media report, without commenting on the content.
He will give the speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), at 2 pm Norwegian time.
Iver B. Neumann, Russia researcher and director of the research institute Fridtjof Nansen’s Institute (FNI), believes it is obvious that the war in Ukraine will be a topic here.
– It would have been extremely funny to hold such a meeting, and that the war is not a topic. That in itself is almost impossible, says Neumann to Dagbladet.
He points out that when Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, Putin had two goals. One was “to prevent genocide in the Donbas”, the other was to “denazify Ukraine and bring about a regime change in the country”.
Gloomy prophecy: – Brutal and bitter
– Golden occasion
– There are two very different goals, where one applies specifically to Donbas, and the other applies to the whole country, Neumann points out.
– If he sticks to the first goal, then they have every moment the whole of Donbas militarily, and thus a golden opportunity to stop. Putin can use the speech to say that they have reached their main war goal – and stop, he continues.
– Is it likely, do you think?
– I do not think it will happen. It is not very likely, but it can happen, Neumann answers and continues:
– We can only hope that it happens. It would have been good for all parties if Putin says that the goal of the war has been reached, and is stepping down.
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– Not over
As for Putin’s other goal – to bring about a regime change in Ukraine, he is still far from achieving it, Neumann points out.
– If we are lucky, we can get a ceasefire and a break, but the conflict as such is not over. Russia is still dissatisfied with Ukraine, and Ukraine will still have the Donbas back, he says.
The speech will be held at St. Petersburg’s International Economic Forum (SPIEF), reports Sky Newswhich cites Russian media as the source of the information.
Usually a number of foreign politicians and business leaders attend the conference in Russia’s second largest city, but this year there will be far fewer guests from other countries as a result of Russia’s war against Ukraine, writes NTB.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claims to Russian media that Western officials have put pressure on some participants in an attempt to persuade them not to participate.
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Talk about finances
According to the head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College, Tom Røseth, 265 foreign companies are listed on the list of participants for the conference.
– Do you think Putin’s speech will be important here?
– It is possible that it will be raised somewhat. This is the Russian Davos copy. Normally it has a western presence, but now, when it does not, most Russian companies participate, Røseth answers.
– It may be that Putin wants to talk about economics – both the Russian and the world economy, as well as blame the Western sanctions regime – and there is nothing new in that. Perhaps he will also say in clear text that Russia is turning the economy away from the western world, Røseth continues.
– What about the war – do you think it will be a theme?
– They are making progress in the war, so it is quite possible that Putin will repeat in plain text what territorial ambitions he has; whether it affects the Donbass area and the land connections to the Crimea.
EXPERT: Associate professor and head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College, Tom Røseth. Photo: The Armed Forces
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– No sign of stopping
Røseth thinks the arena could be a place for Putin to claim a partial victory in the war, but does not think he will stop and lay down his arms now.
– There are no signs of that. On the ground, we see that they are increasing efforts around Sievjerodonetsk and Bakhmut. I think they want to take all of Luhansk, as well as the rest of Donetsk. Everything else would have surprised me, says Røseth.
– Is this speech very important?
– We will not know until afterwards. We do not know what he wants to say, but it has been said by Kremlin advisers that he will talk about the international economic situation and Russia’s tasks in the near future, and then it is the sanction and the war in Ukraine that are opened to talk about, Røseth answers .
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