Political scientists in the program “Referendum” destroyed the hot political situation in Bulgaria. Alpha Research data show that Bulgarians prefer the government to resign immediately.
The experts predicted the outcome of the no-confidence vote and what awaits our country in the coming months.
In the studio were Boryana Dimitrova from “Alpha Research”, political scientist and lecturer at NBU Lyubomir Stefanov, political scientist and lecturer Svetoslav Malinov, political scientist from “Trend” Dimitar Ganev and political scientist Assoc. Prof. Milen Lyubenov.
Assoc. Prof. Milen Lyubenov was the first to pick up the hot potatoes in the studio:
“Currently, the government has lost a majority, there are 109 MPs plus 5 MPs who left the ITN today,” he said.
“Whether this no-confidence vote will succeed will depend on whether deputies are found to support the ruling party,” Lyubenov said.
“Some of the political parties in this National Assembly, including some part of the ITN, have no interest in early elections.TN may not enter parliament if there is an early vote, and this may motivate the party’s deputies to support the government, “Lyubenov said..
Boryana Dimitrova also intervened in the conversation:
“In this type of political nomads and searches for deputies, who in 12 out of 5 are aware of the realities, it is very difficult to say which option for the future is more realistic,” she said.
“In the November elections, ITN received about 1/3 fewer votes than in the previous vote. Now the research we are doing puts them on the edge – about 4%. Estimates of the work of the ITN are not high at all“, Said Dimitrova.
According to her, the behavior of the PP is more interesting. “In my opinion, they suffer from political short-sightedness. It made them choose their patron 6-7 months ago in the person of Rumen Radev. The fact is that 4 months later both sides were disappointed with each other. The result is a confrontation between the institutions, mutual accusations, mistrust and a relaxed position of Bulgaria in an international context, “she said.
According to her, all the pathos and Petkov’s efforts are focused in this situation to look for a few more deputies: “This will not ensure the stability of the government and will not give a chance to work,” Dimitrova said.
Political scientist Svetoslav Malinov believes that the ITN will steal all the negatives from the situation.
“A vote of no confidence is much easier as a procedure than finding deputies. He demands 121 deputies to support him. No one can hide behind a quorum and behind any games. “
“The point of this procedure is that everyone will take their place. “The ITN, in whatever composition the group is, will have to bear the responsibility that they are going to the early elections,” he said.
However, Malinov is not committed to predicting how it will end.
Lubomir Stefanov also did not want to commit to a forecast for the development of a vote of no confidence.
“It’s kind of like bonito counting and wild rabbit season right now,” he said.
“Will we get the bill?” She never dated us. We expected Trifonov to be the man to blow up the coalition. The ITN is still blaming two parliaments, “he said.
He joined the conversation and Dimitar Ganev from Trend.
“This government will have several votes of confidence and no confidence. I mean the budget updateand those ministers who have resigned cannot do the same. To change them, you still need a vote of confidence, “he explained.
„The resignation of this cabinet is likely to take place, given the fact that they are losing their majority, unless some more deputies are found. But even if they find what? They will buy a few more months. I do not think it is in the interest of the PP, DB and BSP to prolong all thisHe added.
According to him, when the government falls, roulette will turn again, but Ganev admitted that he does not see an option in which there will be a new government in this parliament.
“There is no resource around GERB to form a majority either. We will go to the polls in such a case, “Ganev stressed.
The floor was taken again by Assoc. Prof. Lyubenov:
According to him, Bulgarian parties defend personal or private interests: “Many business parties are being formed – RZS, BBC, VOLIA, ITN. “Business is trying to influence politics,” he said.
According to him, however, traditional parties are even becoming such business organizations.
According to Malinov on the other hand, it is not good to talk about Bulgarian parties like this: “In the 1990s, the division was over who imagined Bulgaria and how. “What money is behind thinking that there is a war in Ukraine and that we are too gas dependent,” he said.
Malinov asked what was behind the rift between Radev and Petkov. “They have authentic political divisions,” he said. “There is money, but we should not look for conspiracy theories here,” Malinov added.
He re-entered the conversation Boryana Dimitrova, a political scientist from Alpha Research:
“If the dream of reason gives birth to monsters, then we can say that the dream of the voter in our country, too,” she said.
According to Dimitar Ganev from Trend, Malinov outlined the new faults:
„A new majority may be born, because “Vazrazhdane” is raising its percentages, in addition, “Bulgarian Rise” by Stefan Yanev can also enter parliament“he said.”
According to Boryana Dimitrova, the budget may pass, but only in certain parts: “The budget of the National Social Security Institute, the National Health Insurance Fund and the Health Insurance Fund will pass. There, no party wants to be accused of leaving large groups of people without help. “Will it go to other parts where there were other support and update measures in place?” She said.
She rebuked the government for not adopting changes to the 22 laws so farneeded to start absorbing money under the EU Development Plan.
According to Dimitar Ganev, we have seen almost nothing in these 6 months of parliamentary work.
“It would be irresponsible for the parties not to agree on this budget update. “I think we can get some kind of budget Frankenstein between first and second reading,” he said.
“The Electoral Code will be opened, several parties want to return the paper voting. We can witness ugly things with floating majorities, “Ganev said.
According to Assoc. Prof. Lyubenov, one cannot speak of a government of the minority and there is no ground for such a thing in our country.
According to Assoc. Prof. Svetoslav Malinov, it is best for the parties to reach a minimalist consensus on what to do before the new elections. “It will now be clear whether they are responsible enough to accept the inevitable. That means saying what they will accept, no absurd proposals, “he said.
According to him, the vote of no confidence will stop the chances of ITN to pretend to be irresponsible.
According to Boryana Dimitrova, pensions should be discussed very well in the parliament, because maybe now people may want to raise their nominal value, but within 3 months inflation will be unleashed so much that its purchase value will fall much more.
According to Dimitar Ganev, there may be a program government, but after the elections. “Then the people and parties that have inflicted severe insults on themselves can hide under the facade of this type of format. There will be elections to legitimize“, Ganev thinks.
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