Bitcoin (BTC) continued that dynamic decline. So the market fell to almost $ 20,000. At Bitstamp, the exchange rate was indeed very close to the original historical high of 2017, which means that bitcoin has fallen by some 70% overall. So today’s analysis will be bigger because it deserves it. We will therefore look at several time frames.
In any case, I say almost a year and a half, when the 30k falls, don’t catch it. There are no supports up to 20k. And what will I do? I’m catching those falling knives. One does not listen to one’s own words and is subsequently forced into one. Although personally it doesn’t seem like a real break S/R level $ 20,000 immediately without retracement of at least $ 27,000. But in this market environment, about a lot is real.
Afternoon update:
I completely forgot to mention that the 50-month moving average tested on the monthly BTC chart. As serious as the support confluence is really robust at current levels. Some retracement should begin. At least $ 27,000.
Current situation at 1W BTC / USD
We have already thoroughly analyzed the weekly chart yesterday, so only briefly. Actually, I’m just interested in the reaction to 200 weeks moving average. It is about ultimate support that bitcoin shouldn’t let so easily fall. And indeed, this dynamic support worked. Respectively, it is close to this level of support confluence, but I de facto relied on that glider. It was like that rescue Sew.
So if the retracement is to come, the missing wave going up, the time is right now. Otherwise, I probably didn’t mention it yesterday. But if we ignored the only green weekly candle with the upper wick and small body during that wave down, we have 11 red candles in a row. This is a complete bizarre. By that I mean that the growth wave for purification is very desirable.
Longy na Bitfinexu
When I said that most of those long positions at Bitfinex would probably have liquidations below $ 20,000, many brigaders started to think it was nonsense. In the end, it turns out that I was right, because there is no high leverage on Bitfinex, and at the same time a relatively small maintenance margin is enough, which you just add when you fall. As a result, the lengths on Bitfinex are still growing and are now reaching 107 thousand BTC. When $ 20,000 bursts, we’ll go straight to $ 12,000. That will be a surrender.
Current situation at 1D BTC / USD
As for the daily chart, Monday ‘s candle closed in full red form and also has the largest volumes since May 19, 2021. This is absolute confirmation bearish market. Now no moon boy can tell his sheep that we will go to $ 100,000 by the end of the year. This is finally over, so the market will only be cleared of these people. And in time we will buy the crypto from them. For cheap, of course.
Bitcoin continued to fall tonight. We have a current market bottom of 20 846 USD. Therefore, it will now be a question of whether the market is really capable of at least some retracement. Respectively, it is definitely worth waiting for the shape of a day candle. If there is a Pin Bar with solid volumes, it is quite possible that the course will go in the right direction. In this case, the target is about $ 27,000 – $ 30,000. It makes sense for bitcoin to test the wide bandwidth between $ 30,000 and $ 65,000.
Current situation at 4H BTC / USD
The 4H chart on Bitcoin CME futures looks quite different. In addition to the fact that we logically have a gap in the price range of 29,000 – 27,300 USD, the current market bottom has formed the so-called Tweezer pattern. Which is a sirloin turnover formation. The volumes are solid, so hopefully the growth wave awaits us.
Instead, there is a typical Pin Bar on crypto exchanges such as Binance. And with quite decent volumes. This confirms to us that the supply side is no longer strong. Which, among other things, was known last night. It literally pushed down with the last of his strength.
In conclusion
I forgot to mention that according to RSI indicators is bitcoin in an extremely oversold state. The weekly is at 27.6 points. Daily at 25.35 points and 4H yesterday fell to 12.4 points. So let’s see what it does.
ATTENTION: No data in the article is an investment board. The analysis does not try to predict future price developments. It serves exclusively as educational content on how to approach the market. Before you invest, do your own research and analysis, you always trade at your own risk. The kryptomagazin.cz team strongly recommends individual risk considerations!
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