Many of us thought that the Ukrainian crisis would save Boris Johnson of a motion of internal censure promoted by his party colleagues. It has not been. We see that when Sue Gray’s report was published, as well as part of the police report, there has been a new gale within the Conservative Party. Although we might think that within the tendencies of the party there has been a calm or a truce, there has always been the possibility of getting enough signatures. And these were presented in the 1922 Committee, which is the one in charge of the internal functioning of the party since 1923.
A few months ago we all had the feeling that Boris Johnson was no longer on the tightrope. And his leadership in military and humanitarian aid in Ukraine we thought was going to save him. As well as the fact that the news or headlines by the conservative press against the prime minister and his office at number 10 had ceased. Despite the war, we have seen that after the publication of Sue Gray’s report there has been back to his old ways and we have the Conservative press again asking for his resignation through the opinion columns.
We have to go back to the times of Margaret Thatcher to see that the party works against the prime minister himself
If we analyze the polls, we can see how at first the conservative voter would stop voting for the party as long as Boris Johnson continued to lead the party, but currently this is not the case. There is a mass of citizens who would vote against the Conservative Party, voting for other options to thus punish the party, and their lack of internal rigor to deal with the Boris Johnson situation. A really curious situation because we have to go back to the times of Margaret Thatcher to see the party work against the prime minister himself in a completely effective way. as well as against Theresa May. In the 2019 elections, however, they were the elections where the Brexit issue was voted on in a plebiscite. Voting for the Tories was voting yes, voting for the rest of the formations was voting against. So the “BoJo effect” it wasn’t so much about him, but about the frame.
On the other hand, surveys indicate that the Labor Party he would win the elections comfortably, but not with a large majority. That means that although the Conservative Party would lose some important fiefdoms, which it took from Labor in the previous election. Likewise, the Labor Party would not get much support or a convinced vote either, but its victory would be the result of the vote against it.
Despite the fact that British politics is often excessively garish, it is part of the political behavior that accompanies institutionalism
The fact that some Conservative MPs have rewritten the letters and have presented them again to the 1922 Committee, as I said at the beginning, is not a sign that the prime minister has the losing side this time either. Not because of the leadership that has emerged in the Ukrainian crisis, which has been partially reinforced, but also because of what would be the issue of the internal organization itself. Unlike last time, where there were a number of key candidates, Rishi Sunak o Liz Truss, in this case there are none of them. This has the consequence that internal movements do not arise for anyone specific, but rather it is the constituency deputies themselves who present battle in their own way.
We must take into account a consideration regarding British policy itself. And it is that despite the fact that many times this is exceptionally gesticulating or excessively shrill, it is part of the very political procedure that accompanies the country’s institutionalism. In the same way that there have always been opposing factions within political parties against their leaders. Baldwin, Chamberlain, Churchill, Attlee, Eden, Douglas-Home, WilsonHeath, Callaghan, BlairBrown o Cameron. In the cases of Thatcher and May, it was forced to the extreme of threatening an internal censure motion, and in the case of Thatcher, the first round was held.
The SNP in Scotland is considering, taking advantage of the lack of credibility in Downing Street, a new process for an independence referendum
On the other hand, we can also analyze the situation that in Scotland the SNP raises again using the lack of credibility that Downing Street may have, taking advantage of the situation to start a new process for a pro-independence referendum. Despite the fact that some polls point to a tie, and others to a “No” victory for independence. Also in the case of North Ireland we see how the lack of credibility of Boris Johnson and the British government to deal with the existing situation on the issue of the border with Ireland, and with the European Union, also undermines the credibility of the conservatives in Northern Ireland, as well as the Unionism British. Let us remember that the last elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly on sense fine won the elections, and the UUP moved down a seat, and the DUP three.
In conclusion, the crisis dragging down the British Conservative Party is no longer a crisis that only affects Boris Johnson and his leadership, and part of his Cabinet. It is a crisis that affects the Conservative Party as a whole. A change of leadership will no longer save a foreseeable bad electoral result. Nor does the fact of being at the current crossroads, that the leader and prime minister should be changed but at the same time nobody wants, nor does the party unite, causes the current immobility. Yes, letters are being presented for him to resign. Yes, the Conservative Party sees that business as usual is sinking them in the polls. Yes, they should change leadership and strategy. But there is no one today who can stitch together the factions, or unite the party under a consensus candidate.
They’ve taken too long, even favorites from a few months ago, like Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Jeremy Hunt o Nadhim Zahawi They are as popular as they were. We will have to pay attention to the next few weeks, or the next few days.