Why this research?
It is clear that the world was not sufficiently prepared for the outbreak of the corona pandemic. Strikingly, the countries that were previously thought to be the best prepared have not actually been the most successful in limiting the number of infections and deaths. This study aimed to identify factors that have been shown to have a protective effect, in order to better prepare us for a new pandemic.
Research question
What factors are related at a country level to reducing the number of infections and deaths related to Covid-19?
How was this investigated?
The researchers looked at the number of infections and the ratio between deaths and infections (IFR) in 177 countries and regions around the world, from January 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021. Initially, they examined the extent to which known factors, such as seasonal influences, population age and BMI could explain the variation in both outcome measures. Next, the researchers calculated the relationship between various social factors and both outcome measures. Finally, they looked at the role of vaccination coverage and the reduction of mobility in this relationship.
Main results
The researchers were only able to explain 40% of the variation between countries in the number of infections. Altitude above sea level was one of the most important factors with 5.4%. Population age could explain the variation in IFR for 46.7% and was by far the most important factor. BMI could explain the remaining variation in IFR for only 1.1%. When the researchers adjusted for these factors, trust in the government and trust in each other turned out to be an important explanatory factor for the number of infections within a country. The researchers calculated that if mutual trust had been as high in all countries as in Denmark (75th percentile), this could have reduced the number of infections worldwide by about 40%, assuming a causal relationship. A possible explanation for this association is that greater confidence also appeared to be associated with higher vaccination coverage.
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