Three months into the war, Russia has suffered heavy losses in Ukraine.
They have lost around the capital Kyiv, and only have control over smaller areas in the east, where the focus has now shifted.
For several days, Russian forces have been attacking the city of Sevierodonetsk. If they take control of the city, it will mean that Russia controls the whole of Luhansk. One of the two regions, the other Donetsk, which Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized as independent just before Russia entered Ukraine.
Fight for «key city»: – Decisive
– Limited
– It seems that Ukraine is trying to keep Sevierodonetsk and force Russia into a tough city war similar to what was in Mariupol. If they succeed, they will inflict heavy losses on Russia, says Lieutenant Colonel Palle Ydstebø to Dagbladet.
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Ydstebø believes the Russians must make a careful assessment of how offensively they can go against the city. No later than Thursday reports British intelligence that Russia has suffered heavy losses in Ukraine.
– There is a limit to how many costly victories they can take before they run out of forces, Ydstebø points out.
Former chief of the defense staff, Arne Bård Dalhaug, believes Ukraine is well equipped for a longer war.
– Most people are guessing that the war will be longer, and the supply of weapons to the Ukrainians will not end. Now they also have time to train their forces in the use of Western weapons.
Scaled-down ambitions
It has been speculated that President Vladimir Putin will declare victory in the region if they manage to take Sevierodonetsk. Norwegian experts will not agree with this narrative.
– At best, it is a small tactical gain. The big goal is to control Ukraine, the reduced one is to take Luhansk and Donetsk, for which they have a long way to go. If they do not manage to take advantage of that victory to move on, it can not be used for any further development, Ydstebø answers.
– Will show them within six seconds
– It’s not a victory. It is a very scaled-down version. They can say that Luhansk Oblast is occupied by the Russians as Putin promised on February 22, but Donetsk is still largely under Ukrainian control, Dalhaug explains.
He believes that the development of the war is clearly marked by the fact that Russia’s ambitions are getting smaller and smaller.
– As of now, they have in reality ended up with a small tactical battle around Sievjerodonetsk. Most analyzes show that they do not have the capacity to make larger attacks than they do now.
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Russian bombing has increased “exponentially” and Russian forces are being transferred from various regions to annexes in Sevierodonetsk “at all costs,” the city’s mayor, Serhi Hajdaj, said on Wednesday. CNN.
– The next week is crucial, he said and continued:
– If they do not succeed by Saturday or Sunday, they will run out of energy, and the situation will at least stabilize for us.
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