The Omicron subvariant of COVID-19, which is defined by New York State health officials as substantially more contagious than the first Omicron strain, now accounts for up to 73.3% of all viruses circulating in the New York State region. York, according to data released Tuesday by the CDC.
The prevalence of BA.2.12.1, which according to health officials appears to be at least 25% more transmissible than BA.2 (which is said to be 30% more contagious than its predecessor, Ómicron), in the region of New York has risen at a much faster rate than nationally, the agency’s latest weekly update shows.
The CDC puts it at 66.3% (at least) of COVID cases in the New York region, which for its purposes also includes New Jersey, Puerto Rico, and the British Virgin Islands, though it says the proportion of BA cases .2.12.1 could be higher. In any case, this subvariant is the dominant strain at the local level, while the first Omicron variant, BA.2., has maintained its national dominance in recent weeks (56.4% of cases compared to 42.6% for BA.2.12. one).
However, given the latest trends, BA.2.12.1 should assert its dominance in the United States before the end of this month.
While there is no scientific evidence to date linking BA.2.12.1 to more severe COVID-related illness or reduced vaccine efficacy at this point, the increased transmissibility seems clear. New York state, for example, is home to almost half of the 79 US counties designated by the CDC as high risk for COVID for the community.
None of the high-risk US counties, according to the CDC, are in New York City, but all five counties appear to be seeing an increase in cases. All counties except the Bronx, which has the second-lowest complete vaccination rate among the five, are now considered medium COVID-alert areas by the CDC.
The New York City Department of Health Variant Tracker does not explicitly break out the BA.2.12.1 subvariant, but it does indicate that the subvariants linked to BA.2 represent the overwhelming number of cases over the past month and a half or so less. And COVID positivity rates in the city are rising in line with increased transmission, the data shows.
Many more BA.2.12.1 infections may go unreported. The proportion of positive COVID samples genomically sequenced to isolate variants is a fraction of total confirmed cases. The city completed that exhaustive work for just 4% of its cases in the latest week of data and the state has sequenced fewer (3.65%, according to the CDC).
In Central New York, which has experienced the highest case rates in the state since March, BA.2.12.1 was first detected in February and increased to 77% of sequences in April. The subvariant also accounted for more than half of the sequences in the Finger Lakes region and more than 25% of the samples sequenced in the State Capital, Mohawk Valley, and Southern Tier regions as of April 20.
All five regions have a higher average reinfection rate per 100,000 residents than the state, with the Mohawk Valley highest among them (7.1). New York City’s reinfection rate remains below the rolling state average (3.5 vs. 4.6 reinfections per 100,000 residents), but both numbers have been rising of late.
New York’s reinfection data doesn’t take vaccination into account, but its panel of cases and hospitalizations does, and the story is similar there. The rolling rate of new breakthrough cases per 100,000 residents has increased every week since March 7, state data shows. The weekly increases seem to have become more pronounced at the end of March, going from 13 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants the week of March 21 to 34.2 the week of April 25, which is the latest data available.
New York’s ongoing rate of hospitalizations has also increased for people with all vaccines, but to a much lesser degree. Hospitalizations are a lagging factor, so that jump didn’t come until mid-April. The progressive hospitalization rate almost tripled from the week of April 11 (0.54) to the week of April 18 (1.48), although again, multiple factors could be at play. State officials have not speculated on the cause recently.
While much is still unknown, scientifically, about BA.2.12.1 at this time, health officials and experts are paying close attention to the numbers.
New York City raised its COVID alert level to medium last week as cases surpassed a rate of 200 per 100,000 people in all five boroughs. It was the first time the Health Department has adjusted that level since the new system debuted under Mayor Eric Adams earlier this year.
No new COVID protocol will be implemented in the city at this time, but if the hospitalization rate exceeds the CDC’s highest risk threshold of 10 per 100,000 and the case rate of 200 per 100,000 is maintained, use mandates of indoor masks could return across the city.
Experts hope, and believe, that it won’t be necessary.
While new case rates are rising, they remain well below what they were during Omicron’s peak surge in January. More importantly, hospitalizations and deaths, the far more important metrics from a public health perspective, continue to decline.
In New York City, ongoing COVID hospitalizations over the past seven days are up 7.5% compared to averages over the previous four weeks, which the city says are stable. The mortality rate continues to fall. Statewide, 2,235 people are hospitalized with COVID according to the latest data, more than doubling in the last month. However, that total is less than a fifth of where hospitalizations were during the January surge.
And that’s more than eight times fewer than the record 18,697 New Yorkers hospitalized with the virus in April 2020.
That is why officials urge continued caution regarding the COVID protocol, but without panic.
“As we continue to monitor the numbers, I encourage New Yorkers to continue using the tools to protect themselves, treat and prevent serious illness from COVID-19,” Governor Kathy Hochul said in a statement, as she herself works to recover from COVID. “Get your vaccine, your second dose, or your booster when you’re eligible, and get your kids fully vaccinated. Get vaccinated before you travel and see vulnerable loved ones, and if you test positive, ask your doctor about possible We will continue to make sure these tools are available to all New Yorkers so we can safely move forward during this pandemic.”
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