- A minority cabinet without a DB is set to be a likely way out in the autumn. The right is coming out in fulfillment of Cornelia Ninova’s request for a price ceiling, but they will support it
- In new elections, governance is impossible because of “Vazrazhdane” and “various new ones”, predicts Kiril Petkov
- GERB-UDF talked about a government of national salvation
President Rumen Radev with a raised fist (as in 2020 against Boyko Borissov) or insurmountable differences between the partners in the quadruple coalition will lead to early elections this year. Such are increasingly being launched by political scientists and sociologists, as well as by the ruling coalition.
Radev hardened his tone after April 27, when he announced that the government should answer why only Bulgaria and Poland have stopped gas.
This was followed by an exchange of sharp remarks between him and the government in the person of Prime Minister Kiril Petkov and his deputy Asen Vassilev.
And Deputy Prime Minister Iliana Yotova has announced that Deputy Prime Minister Asen Vassilev must resign if he ignores 25,000 gas companies over questionable commissions.
An open warning that
President Rumen Radev will soon lose confidence in Kiril Petkov’s government
received the quadruple coalition at the end of the week. It was addressed by political scientist Slavi Vassilev – an advocate of a presidential republic and part of Radev’s team in his first term. He openly defended the president, and his father Vasil Vassilev was part of the two initiative committees that nominated Radev in 2016 and 2020.
“We continue the change” opens their necks in a very inappropriate way, criticizing Rumen Radev. Trust is being withdrawn by Petkov and his government because of this. The paths of the PP and the president diverge. If they continue to do so, he will soon lose confidence in them, warned Slavi Vassilev on Saturday.
According to the political scientist, who symbolically wore green socks for his participation in Nova News, however, he would not raise his fist.
And because of parliament’s decision to help Ukraine, President Radev is openly attacking the government – first, using terms such as “charlatans” that fuel passions of war for personal use, and second, after parliament passed a compromise decision on military-technical assistance that appeased the BSP. , but stirred up “Democratic Bulgaria”. He called it a “dangerous step towards Bulgaria’s involvement in the war.”
With which he drew the wrath of DB voters, but also the support of people who for one reason or another want Bulgaria not to make sharp movements in the conflict. A few days ago, a Eurobarometer survey found that Bulgarians much less than the average in Europe approve of EU action after the outbreak of war and are the least convinced that Russia is to blame.
Radev’s sharp attacks, combined with the announcement of the party of his former caretaker Prime Minister Stefan Yanev,
speculation has intensified that the president wants to rule directly
For now, he and Yanev deny the head of state’s connection to the new political project.
However, in favor of Radev’s ambitions to directly influence the executive branch is the long horizon ahead of him – he has a 5-year term and will be president until January 2027.
The damage will be for both parties – said in an interview with “24 Hours” political scientist Dimitar Ganev. The government will probably lose some of its support because it will no longer be legitimized by Radev as it has been so far. The President, on the other hand, who until recently united all the parties to the change, today loses the support of the DB and part of “We continue the change” because of his position on military-technical assistance to Ukraine. And it seems quite clear that Radev is finally losing his ability to influence the decisions of the executive branch.
Radev is a man with exceptional capacity to fight, he is a real general, you saw what he did to GERB, he is super effective – said the social anthropologist Haralan Alexandrov – to have Radev as an enemy is scary.
Prime Minister Kiril Petkov has already spoken openly about the danger of early elections. He also described the scenario of what would happen if the government fell.
The resignation of three ministers, if it happens, simply means the whole government falls. Let’s think about what it means. It means a caretaker cabinet, next elections. And the next elections – a combination of “Renaissance” and various other newborn parties. The chance for a government…
I think Bulgaria will cry,
Petkov explained to the transport companies, which frightened with protests.
His words became known from a secret recording of the scandalous meeting, which was confirmed by the Council of Ministers.
Fear of the rise of Vazrazhdane and the newly formed parties of Maya Manolova and Stefan Yanev, as well as the unfinished tasks of removing GERB from power for now, however, will probably keep the coalition and none of the four parties – “We continue the change”, “There is such a people” , BSP and “Democratic Bulgaria” will not leave power for early elections.
The ruling coalition manages to pass trials and this is a testament to stability. Ultimately, how stable the coalition is depends on how reasonable each of the coalition partners is, explained the head of the National Assembly Nikola Minchev.
The most likely scenario, however, is for the quadruple coalition to be left without a DB and to be a minority government. The right will continue to support the government, but trying to escape the damage caused mainly by cooperation with the BSP.
On Tuesday, the three DB parties will have their own meetings to decide whether to stay in government. Hristo Ivanov has already raised a red flag in front of the coalition because of the decision on Ukraine and the direct attacks of the ITN against him. Both he and Atanas Atanasov, however
for now, they swear they will not allow early voting
However, there may be a minority government in the autumn, said Vladislav Panev from the third part of the DB – “Green Movement”. In this scenario, the coalition remains with 118 deputies, while the right supports when needed. Panev also pointed out the second red flag – if a price ceiling is adopted, as Cornelia Ninova insists.
For now, GERB leader Boyko Borissov is also running away from early elections. However, his group allows the creation of a cabinet of national salvation, it became clear from the words of GERB-UDF MP Lyuben Dilov-son. However, the MRF is already preparing for a quick vote, it became clear from the words of their leader Mustafa Karadayi on Sunday.
The war has taken away the trust of politicians, the president is more liked than the cabinet
However, 47% do not want early elections
War and constant strife erode trust in both the government and President Rumen Radev. This shows a comparison of ratings from the beginning of the year to April.
The beginning of the mandate of the government of Kiril Petkov started with relatively good indicators – 39% approval and 40% disapproval, according to Trend data from the beginning of the year. In January, Radev maintained his traditionally high levels of trust – 49% positive assessments, and the opposite opinion was 39%.
The dynamic events of February and March – the war in Ukraine, rising prices and friction between coalition partners – are contributing to a drastic change in public attitudes. Thus, in March, 29% gave a positive assessment of the work of the government, and the negative one jumped to 56%.
There is also erosion in the assessment of the president – if in February 55% positively assessed the work of the head of state, and one third negatively, then in March the positive assessments were 49% and the negative ones 39%.
The Trend survey in April did not show significant changes in public attitudes. However, it again registered a slight decline in positive assessments of the work of the Cabinet. 27% approve of it. On the other hand, the negative assessments marked an increase, albeit minimal. Thus, the disapproval of the work of Kiril Petkov’s cabinet from 56% in March reached 58% in April. The survey was conducted after the arrest of GERB leader Boyko Borissov.
The assessments of the head of state do not show significant changes either – the positive assessments for his work are 50% and the negative ones 38%.
A survey by Alpha Research from April registered erosion in Kiril Petkov’s personal rating – from 39% in February to 22.5% in March. Despite this negative trend, he remains the most approved of party leaders.
Although sociological agencies have registered a polarization of public opinion, according to the latest Trend poll, nearly half of Bulgarians – 47% – have expressed the view that early parliamentary elections are not necessary. For their part, 37% are in the opposite position.
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