Correspondent Geert Groot Koerkamp:
“In his speech, Putin will most likely link the victory over Nazism in 1945 to Ukraine. He can say something, for example, that they are still fighting against Nazism, just like their grandfathers used to do. That would not be surprising. The big question is, of course, whether he will declare a general mobilization, but the expectation of most military experts and political scientists is that Putin will not do that today.
So far, the government has constantly emphasized that in Ukraine everything is going according to plan, and that more and more places are being “liberated”. That story is also constantly presented to Russians on television. If a mobilization is announced now, that whole image will be smashed to smithereens. It would be an admission that things are not going well at all and that that limited “special military operation” is actually a war.
Apart from that, May 9 is the most important holiday for the Russians, with a lot of flag display, activities and a party atmosphere. It is not obvious to spoil the mood with such an announcement. Logically, Putin would therefore not declare war. But in February, many also believed that Russia would not invade Ukraine. So anything is possible.”
–
