After the corona pandemic has caused the number of train passengers to collapse and telework has become more widespread, the NMBS will also transport fewer people in the coming years. That is what the Federal Planning Bureau and the FPS Mobility predict in the transport forecasts, which were published on Tuesday. While the total number of passenger kilometers traveled continues to grow and by 2019 will be another 6.1 percent higher than in 2019 (before corona), the demand for train travel is expected to fall by 3 percent, the forecast shows.
The breakthrough of teleworking is described by the Planning Bureau as one of the ‘most important changes in behaviour’, but the effect on the total transport demand is limited, because commuter traffic ‘only’ accounts for one fifth of the trips. In addition, extra trips will be made if the commuter routes are no longer available. Those who do their shopping on the way to work, for example, will still have to do so if the commuter route disappears, the reasoning goes. But where the decrease in commuter traffic has only a limited effect on the general transport demand, the train does see passengers drop out. Train commuters would travel up to 20 percent less passenger kilometers by 2040, according to forecasts.
Walking and cycling are on the rise, the Planning Bureau predicts. By 2040, people will move 35 percent more often on foot or by bicycle, and trips by bus, tram or metro will also improve (+8.8 percent). But the car remains by far the most used means of transport for people. In 2040, it will still account for more than eight out of ten passenger kilometers travelled. Together with the extra trucks that are expected, this will lead to more traffic jams and lower (average) speeds on our roads.
Kater na corona
For the NMBS, which saw its passenger numbers grow in the years before the corona pandemic, difficult years are ahead, according to the forecasts of the Planning Bureau. The railway company is also financially stuck. Last year, it achieved 37 percent less revenue from ticket sales, but did not see costs fall, causing an operating loss of 401.9 million euros – that gap was partly closed by the government, which with 300 million euros the bridge came.
A few months after the corona outbreak, CEO Sophie Dutordoir said she believed “public transport would become more attractive thanks to Covid-19”. And even now the company does not want to get bogged down in pessimism. ‘The forecasts assume that the policy will not be changed,’ says spokesman Bart Crols. ‘But as NMBS, we are already adapting, for example with more flexible subscription formulas for home workers. Moreover, we see that the train is also an important means of transport for leisure travelers. During this spring, some weekends we even welcomed more train travelers than before corona. In the long term we still see growth.’
Georges Gilkinet (Ecolo), the federal minister of Mobility, also says that the federal government will do everything it can to make the train more attractive.
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