Ever since the start of the invasion on February 24, there has been little or no information from the Russian side, both regarding statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin, but also from the Kremlin.
Something that seems to have changed drastically over the last few days.
– I think it is deliberate. There is nothing that comes out of the Kremlin that is not conscious and well thought out, says retired Lieutenant General Arne Bård Dalhaug to Dagbladet TV.
– It is a building of a communication platform with a view to the celebration of May 9, which is the day of victory for Russia after the end of World War II, says Dalhaug.
On Thursday, Putin was notified by Russia’s defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, that the battle for Mariupol had been won, according to Reuters.
Putin is said to have congratulated Shoigu on a “successful operation”, but at the same time said that it was not necessary to storm the Azovstal steelworks.
– I consider the proposed storming of the industrial zone unnecessary. “I order you to cancel it,” Putin said.
The two spoke together in a televised interview in front of everyone.
– It is not necessary to climb into these catacombs and crawl underground through these industrial facilities. Blocks of this industrial area so that a fly can not pass, Putin continues.
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– To be presented
Putin’s rhetoric and wording seem milder than before, in which he justifies the sudden withdrawal with the danger to life and health of the Russian soldiers and officers.
– Both the communication he uses now, and the activities on the ground, suggest that this should be presented as a “planned operation”, which has reached the goals Putin has set for himself.
Dalhaug adds:
– I see it as a fairly coherent drawing from the Russian side.
The Lieutenant General receives support from researcher and Russia expert Jakub M. Godzimirski.
– I interpret it to mean that this is a new communication strategy, which aims to change the image of Putin, Godzimirski says to Dagbladet.
– When Putin speaks publicly that he has made a decision to spare Russian lives, he will send clear signals. This is because he has previously been perceived as cold, and as someone who does not care about soldiers’ lives.
Godzimirski is aware that he has not seen the speech, but says he has noticed a certain change in communication from the Russian side recently, and since the start of the invasion.
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– Must strengthen legitimacy
– Is not this change a little late?
– It is a big problem to have to take the kind of measures in a country like Russia, with such a large restriction on media coverage and freedom of expression, says Godzimirski, and adds:
– It is so that he must strengthen his legitimacy in the country. Taking care of the lives of his own soldiers is an important measure, which in turn portrays him as more concerned with his own than with the warfare.
At the same time, Godzimirski is clear that one should not have too high expectations for this shift.
– It may be the beginning of the end, but it is difficult to determine before 9 May. Everyone expected that this war would be decided on the battlefield in the Donbas and there are still heavy fighting going on, says Godzimirski.