Ukraine War Will Change China’s Invasion Plans

TAIPEI – Challenges faced Russia during his invasion of Ukraine will force China to change its own invasion guidelines. This was stated by the Minister of Defense Taiwan Wednesday (20/4/2022).

The consensus among military strategists is that, like the Kremlin, the leadership in Beijing is plotting a quick and decisive victory when moving to annex neighboring Taiwan in the future. However, many believe that Russia’s lack of progress, and Ukrainian resistance in particular, has given China pause for thought.

Some analysts believe Beijing will conclude that only a heavy saturation and air supremacy attack on the island can give China the edge it needs for its forces to cross the strait to attack and occupy Taiwan’s densely populated cities.

Others say Xi Jinping, who needs political gains to justify a third term as leader, might turn to seizing one of Taiwan’s remote islands, as Vladimir Putin did with Crimea or the Donbas, with a little push from the West.

“The Russo-Ukrainian war has informed all countries, including our own, and our enemies are no exception,” said Taiwan’s Defense Minister, Chiu Kuo-cheng.

“We have to continue to monitor (the situation) closely. We have a very good opportunity to learn, and we will use it.”

“That will definitely change. As for how it will change, that’s what we continue to assess,” Chiu said of China’s invasion guidelines. Newsweek.

The Ukraine match, now in its eighth week, has implications for Taiwan as well. Defense planners see an intelligently equipped armed force and a highly motivated society likely to add an additional layer of deterrence against China, which, like Russia, offers a formidable numerical advantage.

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