Russia had this morning called on the last defenders of the port city to surrender. If they lay down their arms this morning, their lives would be spared.
The Ukrainians seem not to have heeded that. The troops continue to defend the city, an adviser to the mayor of Mariupol also told CNN.
Huge steel factory
The fighters are said to have entrenched themselves in a huge steel factory in the east of the city, on the Sea of Azov. “It is an extremely highly secured factory,” says Dick Zandee, defense expert at the Clingendael Institute. “In recent years bunkers have been built around this with a stock of ammunition and food.”
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The ultimatum can be seen as a ‘gesture’ from Russia. “The gesture is: just surrender, and you’ll be a prisoner of war.”
But according to him, it is also in Russia’s own interest to issue an ultimatum, in order to break the resistance. “Attacking heavily bunkered places costs a lot of victims. The Russians want to prevent that. That is why they are suddenly showing: look how friendly we are.”
Last stronghold
Still, it is only a matter of time for the Ukrainians. “Then the food or the ammunition will be gone. The rest of the city is already in the hands of the Russians. This is the last stronghold.”
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The Russian army is too big. “Eventually the attacker comes in anyway. In World War II you had a lot of these kind of fights. Eventually they just come in, but how many victims will that cost? That is the question. Everything indicates that the final phase has entered.”
Han ten Broeke, director of political affairs at The Hague Center for Strategic Studies, also says that the ultimatum seems sympathetic, but that it is not. “Russians are too afraid it will take too long. They won’t be able to get their hands on it in time. They need to unite forces in the Donbas. The longer this goes on, the more NATO weapons come in and the more they lose themselves on their own side.”
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