Summary of the operational situation for the pandemic of 11 April 2022-
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First the pandemic, then the war.
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The pandemic. A brief overview of the current situation
1. New members of the Moriarty Club – none. There are no new members of the Harry Seldon Club. The conditions for membership and candidate membership are clear to you. Take action.
2. The basic reproductive number – today is 0.98. It is below 1, so the scope of the infection continues to shrink. The Harry Serdon script is stable. There are practically no measures. Which means the sled is well reinforced down the slope. There are holidays with a lot of travel abroad. What happens there is up to you.
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2. No superfire. Diffuse spread has died out. This is good. And what could be done in the current situation of a practical lack of measures. The new version of Omicron, if it wants to swirl, must set it on fire. Every day that the Harry Seldon script is stable is golden. The modified Omicron will find it increasingly difficult to spread.
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3. Are there overcrowded hospitals? There is no.
I remind you, in Western Europe and around us, the covid is still raging. Watch out for the holidays by walking to a country south of us. Remember, I wrote to you – “Harry Seldon” will do what he can until April 20 to limit Omicron. Then comes April 24 with Easter holidays to the south. Things are already up to you.
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4. Is there a total lockdown? There is no. And there are no local ones.
The situation is brightening. “Harry Seldon” stands firm on the path of the lockdown and cannot be bypassed.
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5. Mortality – is slowly declining. The number of days in which the deceased will be a single digit will increase.
The average weekly mortality rate will drop to 10 per day, but slowly. And here “Harry Seldon” did its job.
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7. Conclusion from the inspection – even today, 11 days after the end of the emergency epidemic, the social system is still moving along the predetermined trajectory of the “Harry Seldon” scenario announced to you months ago. Things are under control. Is that correct? That’s right. Harry Seldon did the job. And it remains stable. Even when the measures are already only recommended.
8. The cards today. There are no special changes. It is calm on the Greek border. The presence of the new version of Omicron in Bulgaria is not seen to have any effect. The plan against him worked – we managed to extinguish the diffuse spread. And let him light it if he can. It will take him a long time, and time works for us. This was the goal set in the “Harry Seldon” scenario – delaying the entry of the new version of Omicron in Bulgaria, pushing its action to the warmer weeks of the year and preventing levels of infection, such as in Western Europe. You see, this works. And as long as you keep Harry Seldon stable, it will work.
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We see that not everything is green on one card and not everything is yellow on the other. Omicron is still here and its latest version is still here. Don’t underestimate it. Watch out for the holidays abroad. Whatever you do, it will be. My index values are going down. That’s what I’m going to see. I don’t want them to go up again.
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Now for the war.
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1. We agreed that this is not a place for casting feelings.
I also wrote to you to be very careful with propaganda. Propaganda tricks will be used on both sides. Why you should be careful.
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The situation in Ukraine is not black and white. You know that the population in eastern Ukraine is mostly Russian-speaking, while in western Ukraine it is not. Hence, the attitude towards the different armies in the two parts of Ukraine is different. In eastern Ukraine, the Russian army is not perceived as an aggressor, but in western Ukraine. In western Ukraine, the Ukrainian army is much better received than in eastern Ukraine.
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He is trying to solve the problem by freely omitting pro-Ukrainian propaganda and attempts to organize demonstrations in support of Ukraine. This does not have the support of broad sections of the people and there is a hang – on the Bulgarian ideological front there is no mass movement in support of Ukraine, massive pro-Ukrainian propaganda does not work. I wrote you why – I grabbed the head of the amateur there. That’s not how it’s done. And until it is done properly, it will have no effect. If you don’t believe it, get a real American propaganda specialist to analyze the situation here. He will write the same as me.
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It remains to be seen whether the Ukrainian army has dug enough past Kramatorsk and whether the Russian army has exceeded critical levels of concentration of military equipment. One may ask – can the Russian army reach and exceed this critical level at all? Oh, yes, it can. Weapons of mass destruction can easily deal with the Kramator bunker system. The hopes of the Ukrainians are that they will not be used.
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3. So far, the Russians are not using their heavy conventional weapons and weapons of mass destruction. They do far less damage than they can do. This work may change along Kramatorsk. Here we agree with US military experts.
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4. Mariupol fell. Ukrainian losses there are not small. What is going on there now is called cleansing. Very interesting data emerge as those from Azov used as a human shield NATO officers sent to help the Ukrainian army, as well as NATO officers sent to rescue the first NATO officers. There will be quite interesting scenes when some of these officers are captured by the Russians.
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5. The Kramatorsk arc. The battle is going on. Whatever Ukrainian military equipment is above the ground is being destroyed.
It is not a black and white situation, not at all. After the war is over and it is clear who did what during it, I will not be surprised if the Ukrainian problems in eastern Ukraine turn out to be bigger than the Russian problems in western Ukraine. We are watching – those from “Azov” are not ashamed to use the Western military as a human shield. We cannot expect them to care about the civilian population. In which Ukrainian is not a native language.
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6. Technical refraction – that’s what we agreed to talk about in mid-April. We watch what happens.
We have arms supplies for the Ukrainian army. That’s good.
This will stabilize its ground forces. There is no fleet, practically no aviation. And, yes, tanks spring from the ground.
Refineries – no. Repair plants – no. What is left are parts of the ground forces. Which in eastern Ukraine must be well bunkered to survive. The Russians? Their losses are smaller than expected, they do not care much, they rotate parts of the group in Ukraine. They bring in fresh energy. Is that so? That’s right. Something else is interesting. The losses of Ukrainian armored vehicles are calculated. The losses of the Russians fell below expectations. Probably related to changes in command lines. The command was taken over by a general with extensive experience from the war in Syria. Nothing good awaits Kramatorsk.
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7. Mental refraction.
We have already agreed on Bucha. It is not for Srebrenica.
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Very treacherous position. Keep it going, we’ve already used it to impose sanctions on Russia. No firm conclusions as to who did it. Maybe so, but only if you’ve caught enough carp on the propaganda hook. But if you have problems with propaganda, as is the case with the distrustful people in our country, your propaganda may not work. Do not be surprised if the Bulgarian people continue to be skeptical of pro-Ukrainian propaganda. I explained to you why he is. You are trying to impose a pro-Ukrainian position on him, and he is looking into his pocket and doesn’t believe much. Otherwise, helping refugees helps.
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Come on, enough for today. We are waiting to see what will happen.
We remember what Bismarck said about returning the bear to its lair and lying about the war.
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