United States: Decrease in the probability of a “soft landing”
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Unsurprisingly, the Fed* raised its key rate in March by 25 basis points to 0.25%-0.50%. This is the first rate hike since 2018. The FOMC members’ median forecast is now for 6 more 25 basis point hikes in 2022, between three and four hikes in 2023 and no hikes in 2024. Fed Funds rate around 2.8% at the end of 2023. The question of the final level in this cycle of recovery remains open, however.
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