Historical series of the Euribor from 1999 to 2022telecinco.es
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From January 2016 (0.042%) the Euribor does not register a monthly average that is above zero and, from then on, negative data followed one another. Moreover, it was last year when it reached its three minimums, falling below the -0.5% barrier on three occasions: January (-0.505%), February (-0.501%) and December (-0.502%). Therefore, as Colombelli says, “we should not be alarmed because if we look at the historical evolution of the Euribor we see that many times there have been sudden changes in the short term, but
in the medium term there are also readjustments”. “It is difficult for us to reach a positive 0.5% or 1% in 2022 because it would be very rare for the ECB not to act in this regard,” he adds.
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The war in Ukraine, key in the evolution
The macroeconomic environment It greatly influences the fluctuations marked by the Euribor. For example, in a situation of energy and economic crisis such as the current one, with inflation skyrocketing to almost 10% in March, partly due to the war between russia and ukraine, the changes from one week to the next can be quite remarkable. For this reason, the director of Mortgages at iAhorro, Simone Colombelli, prefers to be cautious: “We know how mortgages have evolved historically and this can guide us, but
everything can happen with a war in between”. If we add to the rise in mortgage interest rates that of prices of raw materials, electricity and gasfamilies could be suffocated, so it’s not economically interesting either.
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Furthermore, if this happens, what would be achieved would be to contract demand and this would make supply in general adjust its prices. Looking ahead to 2023, it seems that the possibility of reaching that 1% is not so far-fetched, according to experts, although if inflation manages to stabilize at 2%, as the ECB wants, and the war in ukraine ends earlier than expected, the increases in the Euribor values could be less and less significant and we could return to a situation of stability like the one experienced last year.
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“A war context explains, in part, why inflation rises so much, but if this context of war does not last long, we will return to stability and the Euribor will probably not continue to grow at the speed of recent weeks”, says Colombelli, who adds: “If the The war ends next week with an agreement and there is peace, perhaps everything relaxes, even the ECB could change its strategy. However, these external factors are uncontrollable, as happened with the arrival of the coronavirus, ”says the director of Mortgages at iAhorro.
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When will the influence really be seen in the mortgage sector? Surely the effects of the rise in the Euribor and, therefore, in interest rates will be reflected in the signing of mortgages in 2023 or even in 2024. That is what happened with the arrival of the pandemic: “iAhorro signed 50% more than the mortgages that I had planned in the months of April and May in the year 2020 despite the few options I had, ”says Colombelli, who clarifies that these effects would be beginning to be seen now.
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