“We see Russian soldiers – who already have scarce weapons and morals – who refuse to obey orders, who sabotage their own equipment and who even accidentally shoot down their own fighter jets,” said Fleming.
The speech comes after reports of variable motivation in the Russian forces in recent weeks, which have met with strong opposition in many places.
Russia’s defense leadership announced on Tuesday that it would “drastically” reduce attacks on the northern cities of Kyiv and Chernihiv and focus on the “liberation” of the Donbas.
LISTENED: In conversations that the Ukrainian security service claims to have intercepted, one should be able to hear Russian soldiers talking about the rape of Ukrainian citizens. Video: AP. Audio: Ukraine’s security service. Reporter: Vegard Krüger view more
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– Attempt to camouflage clutter
Local authorities in Ukraine state on Friday morning that Russian forces have been withdrawn or are about to leave areas north of Kyiv and the Chernihiv region.
A few hours earlier, President Volodymyr Zelenskyj warned that Russian forces were gathering around Donbas, Mariupol and Kharkiv to prepare for attacks.
That Russia will now gather forces in the east and south is militarily strategic sense, Dalhaug believes. He is a former head of the Department of Defense Policy and Long-Term Planning, Chief of the Defense Staff, and Norway’s representative on NATO’s Military Committee.
– I interpret it to mean that they have such large losses that they are now restructuring, he says.
He points out that Russia has continued to bomb Kyiv with missiles, after the announcement came.
– Russian statements that this should be “goodwill”, are just an attempt to camouflage the fact that they have messed it up, Dalhaug believes.
He believes there are two sides to the issue; large losses and lack of discipline in the ranks.
– The Russians have had big losses, and the fighting has been very chaotic. Such reports have shown that they have lost radio connection, and all such chaotic things indicate that one has problems with combat morale, says Dalhaug.
Ukrainian authorities have made great efforts to portray the Russian military’s fighting morale as low.
They have published a number of videos of what are to be Russian soldiers in Ukrainian captivity, in which they claim that the prisoners have either been arrested, surrendered or deserted.
In several of the videos, the Russian prisoners of war call their mothers crying, and beg, almost begging, for help. Some also say that they did not know that what they were involved in was an invasion. Some also say that they did not even know they were in Ukraine.
– In addition, they have a lot of problems with poor planning, poor logistics, and they take big losses.It erodes moralesays Lieutenant Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen at the Norwegian Defense College.
– They also have poor management and poor sanitation.
He refers to reports from health professionals in Belarus, which tells of badly injured Russian soldiers in overcrowded hospitals. Some are said to have arrived so late that they have had to amputate their arms and legs due to cold sores.
– It is a massive tragedy from a to å, seen through the eyes of an ordinary soldier, in many of these departments.
LISTENED: Ukraine’s security service has published audio clips that are supposed to be from intercepted conversations from Russian soldiers. Audio: Ukraine’s security service. Video: Reddit / Reuters view more
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Can pick up what they say
The lieutenant colonel places great trust in the allegations of Jeremy Fleming. GCHQ is the British signal intelligence. He assumes that they have eavesdropped on much of the Russian connection.
– We see that the Russians have used unencrypted radio systems, so it is easy to pick up what has happened. GCHQ has a good basis for what they say.
Ordinary military communications are today encrypted. This means that what you send sounds like noise to those who do not have the crypto code.
According to Karlsen, the Russians have largely used ordinary commercial walkie talkies, Motorola and the type of systems people use for hunting here in Norway.
They have also used larger radio systems with longer range – also these unencrypted – where you can pick up what is being said.
– We have seen a number of recordings of Russian units talking together, and becoming more and more desperate because they are protected and do not receive artillery support or supplies. So it’s clear that GCHQ certainly has tons of that kind of information, which gives a good picture over time, and from many places.
