Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – PT Pertamina (Persero) must be prepared to accept bloated losses from selling Non-Subsidized Fuel Oil (BBM), especially RON 92 or Pertamax. This is because the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) estimates that the economic price of Pertamax in April 2022 can reach Rp. 16,000 per liter.
The Head of the Communication, Public Information Services and Cooperation Bureau of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Agung Pribadi said, taking into account the higher March oil price compared to February, the government predicts that the April Pertamax economic price will be even higher than the upper limit price of RON 92 gasoline in March which is estimated at Rp. IDR 14,526 per liter.
On the other hand, the selling price of Pertamax by PT Pertamina (Persero) is still being held at Rp. 9,000 per liter. This means that there is a difference of IDR 5,526 per liter. If it goes up to Rp. 16,000, Pertamina’s “tombokan” will be Rp. 7,000 per liter.
As an illustration, the average consumption of Pertamax reaches 13% of national consumption. With this contribution, Pertamax consumption in 2021 is estimated at 3.78 kiloliters (KL). This figure is obtained from the 2021 realization data, Pertalite consumption is 23 million (KL) equivalent to 79% among other types of gasoline such as Pertamax, Pertamax Turbo, and Premium. So that the 2021 gasoline sales will reach 29.1 million KL.
With a picture of national Pertamax consumption, Pertamina could achieve losses of up to Rp 20 trillion to Rp 21 trillion at an economic price of Rp 14,526 per liter. If the price of Pertamax also soars to Rp. 16,000 per liter, the loss will deepen and reach Rp. 25 trillion to Rp. 26.5 trillion.
For comparison, the selling price of RON 92 fuel at gas stations currently varies depending on the business entity, on average in the range of Rp 12,000 – Rp 13,000 per liter for non-Pertamina.
Shell Indonesia, for example, as of March 1, 2022, the price of Shell Super gasoline (RON 92) is priced at Rp 12,990 per liter, BP-AKR sells BP 92 gasoline (RON 92) at Rp 12,500 per liter.
As for the type of gasoline with an octane rating above 92, it can reach Rp. 13,500 – Rp. 14,500 per liter.
Until the end of March 2022, the price of world crude oil itself has been above US$ 100 per barrel, as well as the price of Indonesian crude oil or ICP. As for the ICP in March as of the 24th, it was recorded at the level of US$ 114.55 per barrel.
The conflict between Ukraine and Russia was one of the factors that pushed oil prices up significantly. This is because supplies from Russia and Kazakhstan were disrupted due to damage to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium pipeline which resulted in reduced supplies to the European Union. So it is very influential on the price of fuel in the country.
CNBC INDONESIA RESEARCH TEAM
(ras/ras)
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