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Investors and analysts have in recent weeks surpassed each other with predictions about oil prices at a level that a short time ago would have been almost unthinkable.
Last but not least is the well-known French hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand, who has built much of his career on trading in the energy sector. According to him, the oil price can go as high as 250 dollars a barrel during the year – that is more than double the North Sea oil Brent is currently trading for.
The statement was made at a Financial Times conference in Lausanne, Switzerland this week. reports the British financial newspaper.
The reason is the lapse of Russian oil from the market. Russia is the world’s third largest oil producer, and Western sanctions following the attack on Ukraine – as well as market participants’ own initiatives to refrain from buying oil – have made it harder and harder to find buyers. The United States has already introduced import bans, but any restrictions on the European side could have an even greater effect.
Both analysts and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have talked about the fact that three million barrels of oil per day can disappear from the market. It is three percent of the entire supply side, in a market that is already very tight.
– Wake up – we will not return to normal business in a few months, Andurand said according to FT.
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– I think we will lose the Russian supply on the European side forever.
Andurand’s commodity fund has doubled so far this year thanks to bets on extremely volatile markets, Bloomberg wrote earlier this week.
– Not temporary
Another manager, Doug King, who runs RCMA’s commodity fund Merchant Commodity Fund, believes the oil price could reach between 200 and 250 dollars later this year.
– This is not temporary. It will be an oil supply shock, he said according to FT’s minutes.
The oil price has already been as high as 139 dollars per barrel this month, the highest level since the financial crisis, and there has been no shortage of warnings that it may go far beyond this in points in the time to come.
Both Goldman Sachs and Rabobank expect oil prices to be $ 135 a barrel in the third quarter – on average. Morgan Stanley recently predicted an average of 120 dollars in the same period, while Rystad Energy here at home has said that prices will probably be between 100 and 130 until the end of the third quarter, but higher than that from time to time. (Terms)Copyright Dagens Næringsliv AS and / or our suppliers. We would like you to share our cases using a link, which leads directly to our pages. Copying or other use of all or part of the content may only take place with written permission or as permitted by law. For additional terms look here.
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