The war in Ukraine has caused a spike in cereal prices, particularly wheat.
On the Chicago Stock Exchange, the main market for agricultural products, the price of wheat has risen 50% since the day of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
The reason ? Both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are among the largest wheat exporters in the world. Between them, they hold almost a third of world trade. So when these two states are at war, it causes food insecurity in countries that depend on their wheat supplies.
Russia, n°1 for wheat
Russia is by far the largest wheat exporter in the world. Ukraine comes in fifth place, after the United States, Canada and France.
And this poses a huge problem for importing countries. Among them are many developing countries dependent on food imports.
Who buys wheat from Ukraine and Russia (exports in millions of dollars)
–
Lebanon and Egypt, for example, import between 70 and 90% of their basic food products. In Kenya too, or even in Turkey, supply chains are collapsing.
Matin Qaim, agronomist, heads the Center for Development Research (ZEF) in Bonn. He summarizes the situation as follows: “The poorest people then have no choice but to feed themselves even less.”
>>> Read also: War in Ukraine: what impact on the exploitation of bauxite in Guinea?
Shortages in Tunisia
Same problem in Tunisia where nearly 60% of wheat imports come from Ukraine.
Sugar, flour, rice, oil have become difficult to obtain. In stores, pasta is rationed to two packets per person.
A supermarket customer testifies, in Tunis: “They have just put couscous back on the shelves, but sugar and rice are hard to find. When they put it back on the shelves, these products leave immediately. I come every day and almost every day it’s the same .”
No wheat, no couscous
–
China and India are not a solution
Most Russian and Ukrainian wheat is exported in summer and autumn. So if the war lasts, it will hamper not only the sale of current reserves but also the harvests of the current season.
To address the shortage of certain food products in the coming months, agronomist Matin Qaim suggests making exceptions in the sanctions for food products, to allow some Russian exports and trade despite banking sanctions.
>>> Read also: Fact-checking: Putin’s arguments for war
Because if India and China have large grain reserves, they cannot fully compensate for the shortages that will arise.
–
