The year 2022, which has just begun, is already a milestone in energy history, even if, at this stage, economists and specialists are wondering whether the world is experiencing its third oil shock. Since 1is January, the price of a barrel of Brent, produced in the North Sea, rose by 65%. It hit a new peak overnight at 139.13 dollars, reflecting an increase of 18% compared to Friday’s closing price. It is quite simply at its highest level since July 2008. The Texas benchmark, WTI, has jumped to over 133 dollars. This surge also hides extreme volatility.
Brent traded in a range of $16.34, the widest on record, but without returning to the scenario of spring 2020 when the futures on the West Texas Intermediate, devastated by the health crisis, had plunged into negative territory. The images of oil tankers waiting offshore to be able to dock and unload seem very distant today…
Law in preparation
Behind this new leap is the fear of a shortage of black gold after statements by Antony Blinken. This Sunday, the American Secretary of State, speaking on the NBC channel, indicated that the White House is carrying out ” very active discussions with [ses] European partners and allies to consider a coordinated way to block Russian oil imports while ensuring that supplies in the global oil market remain adequate. Democratic Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi is expected to propose passing a law banning imports of Russian gas into the United States.
The United States has so far resisted restrictions on imports of Russian crude, because of their impact on the consumer, already strangled by fuel prices at the pump and other energy and food hikes, but the first economy today seems to be moving more and more towards what looks like an embargo.
Towards a barrel at 200 dollars?
The shock of soaring oil prices spread through Asian markets overnight and in Europe this morning, before arriving, almost certainly, in the United States this afternoon. And sounded the alarm to central banks. Will they raise their inflation forecasts? And review the trajectory of key rates for the months to come? US investment bank JPMorgan Chase says the global benchmark could end the year at $185 a barrel if Russian supplies continue to be disrupted, while a hedge fund has pointed out that a $200 barrel is become a possibility. At this stage, it is difficult to accurately determine the top of the rally. ” During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, demand destruction was triggered around $150 a barrel “Recalls John Driscoll, founder of JTD Energy Services in Singapore, quoted by Bloomberg.
Negotiations are underway to increase the supply. Pragmatics first, the United States, through two senior officials, met with members of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s government in Caracas to discuss global sourcing and the country’s ties with Russia, the agencies say. Press. Iran, meanwhile, has made progress toward an agreement with world powers over its nuclear program, which could pave the way for the lifting of sanctions on Tehran’s oil by the third quarter. In Libya, an OPEC producer, production fell below the 1 million barrels per day threshold due to a domestic political crisis.
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