For the first time, there was some panic on the Amsterdam stock exchange today. “The atmosphere was different from the past few days. The fear increased today,” says Corné van Zeijl, economist and strategist at asset manager Actiam.
He is thus responding to the fall in the Amsterdam stock exchange. The AEX fell almost 4.8 percent at 671 points. In two weeks time, about 10 percent of the stock market value has gone up in smoke. In November last year, the AEX closed at a record of 830 points.
“A stock market crash? Well, it’s more like a stock market correction. Such a correction occurs once a year,” says Jos Versteeg, stock market analyst at InsingerGilissen. Van Zeijl doesn’t want it either crash to mention. “A crash is 25 percent. Today’s news was just really bad; a NATO emergency meeting, a fire at a nuclear power plant. All in all, of course, that’s a bad mix. But yes, one sells his shares, but the other buys. There is always a buyer.”
Sensitive loss ING
ING was again one of the largest decliners with a minus of 9.7 percent. According to the Actiam analyst, this is because ING came up with figures about Russia. In total, ING does business with Russian customers for 5.3 billion euros. In addition, it does business for 1.5 billion euros with Russian-owned companies outside Russia. That is not even a percent of the bank’s total loan portfolio.
But that means ING runs more risk than other banks. Van Zeijl: “The ING share was still at 14 euros at the beginning of February, now below 9 euros. We don’t have to worry about the stability of ING, but it is a significant loss.”
Could prices fall further? “Exactly two years ago we went down 30 percent in a few weeks, when the corona crisis started. And now you run the risk that we will end up in a war – although I don’t want to sound dramatic – but it is a very tense situation. A war in Iraq or Syria … those are areas that are not economically important. Now you are talking about Russia with its grain, gas and oil. That is something else. I can imagine black scenarios. You just know not what Putin is going to do.”
‘Don’t worry too much’
Jos Versteeg is not too concerned about it. “Almost 5 percent is a bit much. Look, it’s that uncertainty. Stock markets don’t like that. The Americans have the central bank of Russia chilled, the Russians can’t do anything with their currency anymore. But Russia is not the problem. Russia has an economy that is as big as that of Spain. Crossing out Russia completely would, of course, mean a huge amount of depreciation for major oil companies. That is bad, but not disastrous. Most companies have a turnover of 1 percent in Russia.”
According to Versteeg, that is not too bad. It gets worse when it comes to oil, because the conflict in Ukraine has caused oil and petrol prices to rise enormously. “Of course you can’t take Russia off the oil market. They are too important for that. If you stop Russia with 10 percent of the total world production, you end up with oil prices of 150 to 200 dollars. .”
Other scholarships in the min
Other stock markets in Europe also ended strongly. Frankfurt fell 4.4 percent, London 3.5 percent and Paris 1.8 percent. The Dow Jones index in New York limited the damage. At the close of trading, the main indicator stood at a loss of 0.5 percent.
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