Probably completely unsurprising are the Central European currencies (if we omit ruble) unequivocally the biggest bruise between me since the meeting Russian invasion and Ukraine. On average against euros lost rally, forint a crown more than 5%. This is not a disaster, but it does not mean that it cannot be. And this is very not at first a day of inflan times. So ask yourself if they would be Central European central bank they should not have thought about whether it made sense to crush and possibly accumulate foreign exchange reserveswhen outside zu inflation combined with wolf and refugee crisis. However, the situation is not so universally simple, for example in the region.
Zanme Maarskemwhich has the least fire service in the region, or his foreign exchange reserves and in conjunction with piblin 28 billion. euro. According to one macroeconomic security indicator k, e foreign exchange reserves MNB cover only less than 3 msce maarskch importation. I can’t help Maai from this noise reserves wastes and so can be confused with the fact that their defense forint will take place primarily through the growth of short-term years rates. Evidence of this strategy will be a public one-time deposit MNB rates from 4.6% to 5.35%. O nco lpe is on it Polandwhich has devizovmi reservami ve vi 125 miliard eurowhich is more not only absolute but also relative compared to Maarskem. Except central bank the bag also has a certain amount eur and the Ministry of Finance, which is so on the market euros for rally sold. Pipomeme, e Polish centralln banka moreover, the jet intervened relatively recently, to the detriment zlothowhen she bought several billion eur from macroeconomic reason to species page. In addition, in its monetary policy comments, the NBP regularly warns that its targets may intervene in the FX market (both parties). Psychologically, therefore, the NBP has no problem with the use of FX reserve in favor of stabilization zlotho. It’s just a tactical time and whether your (intervening) will coordinate the policy with the Ministry of Finance.
And the horse is in the most comfortable position NBwhich has devizovmi reservami in nonsense high vi 156 billion eur, resp. tm two tetin HDP. Reserves At the same time, they were overwhelmingly accumulated in the fight against deflation, when centralln banka printed uncovered crownto weaken my own. So now I have to stand on the other side, I explain two things – on the one hand to stabilize the market and on the other hand to tighten the new conditions, which at the time high inflation according to release. As was the case in the firing range NB is huge – just don’t be bound by her.
*** MARKETS ***
Crown
esk koruna will remain due to put escalation napt between Russia and back under pressure and probably me test 26,00 EUR/CZK. Above these equations according to our opinion NB me zat vn uvaovat nad sputnm intervenc for support crown so that it easily confirms the new conditions and at the same time does not have to increase years rates.
Abroad forex
Sklijc zprvy z Ukrainian queues including bombing and subsequent by v nuclear power plant they cannot have a positive impact on the euro-dollar exchange rate. He ‘s on honor tomu to test whether it gets below 1.10, let’s add that e American mnu i nadle podporuje jestb rtorika z Fedu (see vera Powell again).
Today, except for the first of Of Ukraine will be on the agenda i data with americkho labor marketwhich should be better. The statistics of growth statistics will be very careful on the day of the inflan pay.
Commodities
Not only oil prices a gas vera fired rockets upwards. From the pot Russian invasion the penny jumped by more than 50%, exceeding the historical highs of 2008.
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