Russia’s actions
– On the night of February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a “special military operation” against Ukraine with the aim of its demilitarization and denazification, as well as ensuring the right of every people living in Ukraine to self-determination. This propaganda kit testifies to Putin’s desire to “solve the Ukrainian issue” by dismembering Ukraine as a state and depriving it of its right to exist. Putin is served by a powerful propaganda machine.
– Putin declared an operation against the Armed Forces of Ukraine, so the first missile attack on February 24 was carried out on headquarters, ammunition depots, the command and control system, and air defense facilities. I note that practically no Ukrainian planes were destroyed on the ground, which indicates the cooperation of NATO intelligence with the Ukrainian one.
– The invasion began simultaneously from the territory of the occupied Crimea to Kherson, the so-called DPR and LPR – to the administrative border of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Belgorod region with an eye on Kharkov, on February 25, attempts began to storm Kyiv, using the territory of Belarus for the transfer of Russian troops.
– Loyalty to Lukashenka, including the possibility of rocket attacks on the territory of Ukraine with Kalibr and Iskander missiles and the possible participation of Belarusian army units in the aggression, is perhaps the main achievement of Russia in the 100 hours that have passed since the beginning of the aggression.
– I would like to note that Russia has not been able to establish control over any of the major cities (Kyiv, Kharkov, Odessa remained Ukrainian, it is obvious that we are not talking about Lviv or the Dnieper). That is, the Kremlin did not get a platform for creating a puppet “Ukrainian government” that could be headed by one of the Ukrainian politicians loyal to Russia from the recent past.
– Russia’s losses in 100 hours of aggression exceeded 5,000 killed, more than 10,000 wounded, hundreds of Russian soldiers were captured, more than 20 aircraft and helicopters, about 200 tanks and several hundred armored vehicles were destroyed. The Bayraktar UAV of the Armed Forces of Ukraine focused on the destruction of Russian air defense systems.
– It should be noted the problems with the logistics of the Russian military, their lack of attachment to the terrain, the ability to change tactics of action depending on the opposition of the enemy.
– Rocket and artillery strikes on peaceful targets, the use of sabotage groups, violation of the laws of warfare do not paint the Russian military. The participation of the Kadyrovites in the battles in the suburbs of Kyiv did not allow achieving the psychological effect desired by the Kremlin.
– Putin’s appeal to the military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on February 25 with an appeal to take power into their own hands testifies to the lack of understanding among the Russian leadership not only of the formation system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but also of their moral and psychological climate.
– Vladimir Putin’s February 27 statement on bringing deterrence forces, including nuclear forces, to a “special regime” testifies to the failure of Russia’s plans to carry out a blitzkrieg over Ukraine. In this context, Russia’s introduction of military censorship for its media should also be considered.
Ukrainian response
– Although Vladimir Zelensky reacted to Russia’s recognition of the “independence” of the so-called DPR and LPR for a long time, after the start of full-scale aggression from Russia, the president began to act actively and quite offensively. Zelensky demonstrated readiness for leadership in a difficult situation for Ukraine.
– The Verkhovna Rada also worked quickly, which supported the introduction of martial law in Ukraine by a constitutional majority, on February 24, Zelensky announced a general mobilization.
– Petro Poroshenko had the wisdom to calm down political ambitions and curtail political competition with Zelensky, at the same time, the OPU initiated a poll by the Rating group, which allows us to state that 91% of respondents support Zelensky’s actions as president.
– I would like to note the high-quality managerial and informational interaction between the Minister of Defense Alexei Reznikov and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, according to Zaluzhny, 100,000 citizens joined the Armed Forces after the announcement of mobilization.
– It turned out to be expedient that the Law “On National Resistance” came into force on January 1, 2022, providing for the creation of territorial defense. It performs not only auxiliary functions, but significantly helps the regular units of the Armed Forces.
– It should be noted the use of the positive experience of the Revolution of Dignity and volunteering in 2014-2015, the skills were quickly restored.
– I will note the presence of a certain number of Russian collaborators, the most notable of which was Ilya Kiva from the Opposition Platform for Life, from where he was promptly expelled, but the prospects for this party are far from obvious.
– It is interesting to note the escape from house arrest of Viktor Medvedchuk, which indicates the inefficient work of the SBU and the National Police.
– I am focusing on the position of Rinat Akhmetov, who promised in mid-February to invest a billion dollars in Mariupol. After Putin announced the war, he paid a billion hryvnias in taxes up front.
– The beginning of the negotiation process between Russia and Ukraine through the mediation of Alexander Lukashenko could not be effective due to the polarity of the positions of the parties (Vladimir Putin demands recognition by Ukraine of Russia’s ownership of Crimea, abandonment of plans to join NATO and federalization, Ukraine – to liberate the occupied territories in Crimea and Donbass), the very fact of the meeting in Belarus was only a demonstration of the positions of the parties.
Russia’s aggression provoked an unusually harsh reaction from the United States, NATO, the EU, and Great Britain.
– The United States imposed sanctions against a number of Russian banks, noting the readiness to deepen them in the event of an expansion of the scale of Russian aggression. In particular, the “special status” of the Russian deterrence forces prompted symmetrical US measures.
– The West has decided to disconnect Russia from the SWIFT payment system.
– The EU has imposed personal sanctions against Vladimir Putin and Sergey Lavrov, which minimizes the possibility of the Russian president returning to the cohort of world leaders.
– It is significant that the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said that Ukraine should become a member of the EU, and the European Union agreed to finance 450 million euros in defense supplies to Ukraine, including, in particular, the transfer of 70 Soviet-made fighters and attack aircraft.
– I also note that Germany stopped the certification of the NordStream 2 gas pipeline, allowed the re-export of German weapons to Ukraine, and itself decided to supply 500 Stinger missiles and 1,000 anti-tank grenade launchers.
– Turkey has decided to close the Black Sea straits for warships of Russia and Ukraine.
– The accession of traditionally neutral Switzerland to the EU sanctions against Russia, up to the introduction of personal sanctions against the leadership of the Russian Federation, looks indicative.
– I note that the members of the Associated Trio – Georgia and Moldova – refused to join the EU sanctions against Russia, which indicates the Kremlin’s non-public but effective pressure on the leadership of these countries.
Tasks facing Ukraine:
– To withstand the first blow of Russia, while maintaining the controllability of the Armed Forces – it has been decided.
– Inflict maximum losses on the aggressor – is at the decision stage.
– Securing international support for ourselves – practically decided, overall with results exceeding expectations.
– Accelerating European and Euro-Atlantic integration has received a serious impetus for positive development.
– To form an image of a state that is different from the Russian Federation and can compete with Russia is in the process of resolution.
Challenges facing Russia:
– Promptly defeat the Armed Forces of Ukraine – failed.
– Capturing political platforms to proclaim an alternative legitimate government in Ukraine has not been implemented.
– Discrediting the political leadership of Ukraine – no noticeable success has been achieved.
– Creation of an atmosphere of panic – relative success, the activity of the propaganda machine is high, but the efficiency is low.
– The disintegration of Ukraine into several components has not been decided.
RESUME
Today we are witnessing the completion of the formation of a Ukrainian political nation capable of influencing the political landscape not only of the region of Central and Eastern Europe, but of the continent as a whole.
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