PRZEMYZL (Dagbladet): “We mark once again” the beginning of the war against Ukraine “. Which has not happened now either, to the great disappointment of the western media – even though they have done everything they can to whip up the hysteria. Here you see what the words of the western media and politicians are worth “, said Maria Zakharova – director of the Department of Information and Press at the Russian Foreign Ministry, on the messaging service Twitter.
It was February 16th. The message was accompanied by a small video clip, which showed a moss that was blown through a desert landscape. So much so were the warnings of Joe Biden, Jens Stoltenberg & Co. – about a Russian invasion of Ukraine – worth.
Two days later, her boss – Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov – was out with similar words:
“I am sure that even the most mundane followers of foreign policy have long since come to the conclusion that everything is propaganda, fake news and fiction,” Lavrov told Russia Todays English edition.
Now we know the reality. On Friday night, Russia went to full-scale war against Ukraine. Since then, there have been fierce fighting in several cities. But the Ukrainian defense – led by President Volodomyr Selensky, even in conflict, has given the Russians tougher resistance than expected, according to several experts. All Ukrainian men have been refused to leave the country and must instead enlist in the war. On Sunday, the president also called for foreign fighters from near and far to come and fight the Russian invasion.
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Marching music and censorship
President Vladimir Putin declared the invasion on Russian television at 4 a.m. Thursday night. He claimed the safety of the entire Russian people was at stake. He further claimed that Russian troops should “de-Nazify Ukraine”. He did not mention that the President of Ukraine is a Jew.
When Putin declared war, Russian television had for days processed the people’s perception of reality. After the Beijing Olympics, Russian television showed longer features in which the Russian athletes were honored while marching music and national anthem played. Russian television showed its people images that Russians had to flee Ukraine after alleged “Ukrainian aggression”.
Russia’s response to the Norwegian Media Authority – which in practice acts as a censorship authority – threatened on Thursday to block and fine all media that report on the war in Ukraine and do not cite official Russian sources. In other words: No other views than Russia were going out to the people.
Only official Russian sources can provide accurate and up-to-date information, the audit said.
Fake pictures
While political leadership broadcast misinformation in the press, the information war has long been on social media. Here in Poland, rumors began to circulate early: On Friday, a Facebook rumor that the army seized all gasoline, that people who saw the misinformation went man to house to fill the tank and a gas station had to put up signs forbidding people to fill more than one tank.
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The journalist collective Bellingcat – which, among other things, was central in exposing the Russian poison attack on Sergei Skripal in the UK – is now mapping disinformation and fake videos and photos on social media.
They did not have the capacity to be interviewed by Dagbladet, but have online reported a number of apparently false videos that support the Russian narrative.
One example:
By inspecting the file information in a video of an alleged attack on pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, Bellingcat found that it was dated several days before the attack.
The sound in the video was also changed to the soundtrack from a video from a Finnish military exercise.
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Will change behavior
Arild Bergh, senior researcher at the Department of Total Defense at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment (FFI), has followed Russian disinformation over time. He says:
– When you are influencing, in social media, on TV and in traditional media, your goal is to get someone to do something they otherwise would not have done. It is also about creating confusion. You do not have to make anyone believe 100% that you are innocent. But if you can create doubt, and delay decisions with the other party, it is also a goal, says Bergh.
He assumes that it is to counteract such doubts, that for example US President Joe Biden has shared intelligence reports in full transparency in speeches and in statements to the press. Where Putin and his people refused such plans, and European politicians discussed among themselves, Biden and close allies were crystal clear on what their intelligence services reported: Russia planned to invade Ukraine.
– Unlike before, the United States has now been very open and shared completely fresh intelligence. They have chosen to reveal as much as possible – NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg himself said that the only way to resist disinformation is with a free press and the spread of the truth, says Bergh.
Beginner error
– How organized is the activity in social media?
– We do not know. We know the former magic factory – which was central in the influence of the US election – but what is surprising now is how poor the quality of what is spread is. And how easy it is to reveal it. You have time indications that are not removed on videos for example – this is beginner error.
Despite massive coverage of Putin’s message on television and online media in Russia, there have been large demonstrations in Russia in recent days – against Putin’s war in Ukraine. But not all Russians have equal access to Western information about warfare.
– In the European part of Russia they have access to the internet, but further inland there is less internet and more older people. There, the authorities use TV to reach out, says Bergh.
– Most people will probably think that this is true, if it does not rub with something they have experienced themselves. When Putin raised his retirement age, many became angry because it directly affected them. We are all a bit nationalistic – everyone is a little proud when our country wins gold in the Olympics, even though there are very few who run the races.
Western appeal
In the West, Putin’s message has a certain appeal in environments on both the far right and far left. This appears on social media – but also on TV and in politics. Some examples:
Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson has openly supported Putin’s speeches – to the extent that Carlson’s comments about the war were broadcast on Russian state television.
– Donald Trump has now turned around – but first said that he thought Putin’s military action against Eastern Ukraine was “beautiful”.
– In Norway, Carl I. Hagen and some blog media were out early to support the Russian narrative. His party, Frp, supports Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre’s line.
– A small wing on the far left in Labor – the British Labor Party – has also been skeptical of NATO’s statements against Russia.
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Bergh says:
– Putin has two audiences here – the internal and the external. It is interesting for him to get less opposition, but it is probably now especially important to get support internally – and succeed in getting the Russians to believe what he says. It must be added here that when the Norwegian government is to make a decision, they also conduct communication work. And that there are probably also attempts to influence from pro-Ukrainian accounts. But here the Russian narrative is so full of false information, as that Ukraine is not part of Russia, that it will be something completely different, says Bergh.
– As a researcher, I am afraid of the long-term effect that disinformation can have. Take, for example, the disinformation that has been circulating about corona vaccines: It’s not long since vaccines were something you took without blinking, while watching TV about people in low-income countries not getting vaccinated and getting sick. Russia Today and other Russian media spread few direct lies about the coronavirus, but came up with a lot of news, for example about people who got sick from the vaccine in Norway and other western countries – while the Russian vaccine was only covered with good news. Nothing was a lie, but all the information together created a narrative. If you can then influence someone in the West not to take the vaccine – then you have succeeded with the influence.