– Putin did not want the situation we see on the ground in Ukraine now. He knows he will win the war but lose the peace. Full-scale war in Ukraine was not Putin was hopingsays Tormod Heier, lieutenant colonel at the Armed Forces Staff College, to Dagbladet.
– 250,000 Ukrainian soldiers will not give up the fight even if Kyiv falls, he adds.
Heier says the Russian president probably gambled that Ukraine’s political leadership would make concessions early last week, when Putin recognized Lohansk and Donetsk as independent republics.
When the concessions did not come, Putin, by Russian logic, had no choice but to invade, Heier argues.
Putin’s three problems: – Dangerous
Wrong about Putin
Heier is open about the fact that he too was wrong – he thought Zelensky would give way, and that Putin thus “avoided” invading.
Heier, who follows the field very closely, did not think that the President of Ukraine would say no to Putin.
– I was wrong. It is difficult to predict in such conflicts. President Zelensky sat hard against hard. It also surprised me. Putin was thus pushed into a corner, and seen through Russian eyes, Putin had no choice but to wage a major war. That Zelensky should stand so straight back in the enormous pressure from Moscow surprised me, he says.
– Where did you go wrong?
– I thought Putin would stop the advance after the breakaway republics. It would have been classic coercive diplomacy to then give Zelensky the opportunity to make concessions. From a Russian point of view, that would be a great advantage. Instead, Russia is now in a war that will play them completely on the sidelines of European politics for many years to come.
The picture Putin fears
Europe’s Afghanistan
Heier agrees with Lieutenant Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen who tells Dagbladet that it will be It is almost impossible for Putin to retain control of Ukraine, even if he replaces the leadership of the country.
– The forces in Ukraine will not remain loyal to a puppet regime ruled by Russia. This is a huge country, with 43 million inhabitants. They have their own identity, they do not consider themselves Russians. All the soldiers who are now fighting for Ukraine were born after the fall of the Soviet Union, Heier points out.
BELIEVE PUTIN LOSES PEACE: Lieutenant Colonel Tormor Heier. Photo: The Armed Forces Staff College
view more
At the same time, he emphasizes a long-standing danger to NATO now: If Russia overthrows the democratically elected regime in Kyiv, there could be guerrilla warfare in Ukraine for a long time.
This will have major consequences for neighboring countries that are NATO members.
– Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic – these are NATO countries that can become “safe havens” for Ukrainian rebels as they fight. This will link NATO much more closely to the conflict in Ukraine. Ukraine could become a new Afghanistan, says Lieutenant Colonel Heier.
– Should receive the Peace Prize
Russian eyes
He also recalls how the situation in Ukraine has looked from Moscow in recent years.
Tormod Heier points out that it is important to try to understand Russia in order to understand how Europe now suddenly stands in the greatest acts of war since World War II.
– From a Russian perspective, it has been difficult not to set foot in Ukraine. Over the past 15 years, the country has entered into ever closer defense cooperation with the United States. This was strengthened after 2014. For Russia, Ukraine was becoming a potential enemy, says Heier.
–
