Is Russia stopping now, or is it heading for full war? – VG

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Russia has recognized the two Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent states and said they will send troops into this part of eastern Ukraine. The big question is whether President Putin will stop there, or whether he will escalate the conflict further.

There are several possible answers to this.

You can read more about it below – in our 10 questions and answers about the crisis – but let’s start by trying to understand why there is a conflict in the first place.

1. In short; What is the modern historical background for the conflict?

Until 1991, both Russia and Ukraine were part of the Soviet Union. After the dissolution, parts of southern and eastern Ukraine were characterized by a high proportion of ethnic Russians with strong ties to Russia. At the same time, the central and western parts of the country wanted to connect more closely with Europe.

In February 2014, Russian-backed President Viktor Yanukovych was forced to step down during the so-called Maidan revolution.

Later that year, Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula in the south, and in the east they supported a revolt among pro-Russian separatists, who wanted to break out of Ukraine, in Luhansk and Donetsk (also known as Donbass). Since then, there has been a conflict between the separatists in Donbass and Ukraine.

2. What does Russia want?

Russia wants to prevent Ukraine from connecting more closely with the West. Perhaps the most important demand made by Russian President Vladimir Putin is that Ukraine should not be allowed to join NATO.

The paradox is that before Russia’s actions in 2014, a Ukrainian NATO membership never had more than 25 percent support among Ukrainians. Today, well over half want this. Many experts believe that this would probably never have happened if Putin had not entered the Crimean peninsula and supported the separatists in the east of the country.

3. How has NATO / USA / Ukraine responded to Russia’s demands?

NATO has been clear that it is the alliance itself that decides who they want to admit as members. Not Russia. Ukraine has also been equally clear that it is up to them to decide whether they want to apply for membership. So far they have not done so.

4. How have you tried to resolve the conflict?

In recent weeks, intense diplomatic activity has been going on in an attempt to reach a solution that prevents a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Among other things, US President Joe Biden has had several conversations with Vladimir Putin.

Everything now indicates that all these attempts have failed. Late Monday night, Putin decided that Russia would send forces into the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

5. How does Russia legitimize its entry into eastern Ukraine?

Just before Putin announced that he would submit what he described as “peacekeeping forces,” he said Russia recognizes the two regions as independent states. This happens after Russia over several months has granted citizenship to hundreds of thousands of people in the area.

The West describes the recognition of the two separatist-controlled areas as a gross violation of international law and of Ukraine’s territorial autonomy.

Recently, Russia has repeatedly claimed that Ukraine has carried out attacks in the two regions, which Ukraine itself denies. In his speech Monday Putin said the situation in eastern Ukraine is “critical”.

Experts believe he has tried to create a false impression that there is a threat from the Ukrainian side against parts of the population – who have now become Russian citizens.

6. Does this have anything to do with peacekeeping?

Experts VG has spoken to categorically reject that this has anything to do with peacekeeping and protection of life.

7. Will Putin content himself with entering the breakaway areas?

This is the “1 million kroner question” right now.

The experts see several possible scenarios. The first is that Russia is content to enter the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk that are controlled by the breakaways, ie east of the front line, which has already been there since 2014. Another scenario is that they take over the entire two regions. A third may be that they also take other areas south and east of Ukraine where many people of Russian ethnicity live.

One last thing is that Russia takes the whole country in what can be a very bloody war.

The latter option may end with Ukraine being incorporated into Russia, but it is seen as more likely that Putin will establish a pro-Russian government in Kyiv.

8. What is most likely to happen next now?

It depends a bit on who you ask, but everyone thinks the next few days and weeks will give us many answers.

One of the experts VG has spoken to believes that most things now indicate that the whole of Ukraine will be invaded.

The reason is the combination of the fact that Putin, by recognizing Luhansk and Donetsk, got rid of his strongest negotiating card without getting anything in return for it, that Ukraine with this is even further from Russia, that it does not need 190,000 troops if the breakaway areas are the only place to and that Putin has known that this action will trigger sanctions from the West.

9. Can the crisis spread to other parts of Europe?

This question is also described as very difficult to answer, the experts say. Russia has thus set a new standard for what is possible to do in Europe. They have shown that they are willing to go to great lengths to have a new security architecture in Europe and to be a great power on our continent.

Historically, wars have tended to develop in other ways than one might have initially planned. Experts point out that war is something you can quickly lose control of, and point out that both World War I and World War II took different – and not least much longer and more deadly – directions than first thought.

But that does not have to be the case this time.

10. What is the best we can hope for now?

The experts VG has spoken to point out that much of the conflict here is about law and things such as autonomy and international law. For example, whether the breakaway regions can declare independence. The hope may therefore lie in the fact that this is more like a legal conflict and that the military escalation will be limited. It will be able to save many lives.

Putin is probably aware that a major military action could lead to stronger sanctions. There, the experts also believe that there may be hope.

Correction: The first version of this case stated that the Russian-backed President Yanukovych was forced to step down during the so-called Orange Revolution in 2004. That revolution took place in 2004, and the right thing to do is the Maidan Revolution. The case was changed on 23 February 2022 at 07.18.

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