Ukraine believes the possibility of a large-scale Russian invasion is “low”
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Friday that the possibility of a large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine is “low”, despite warnings from the US and other Western countries of an eventual attack “in question”. of days”. “We do not minimize the threat in any way. But we still estimate the probability of a major escalation low (…), Reznikov said during an intervention in the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament).
“I emphasize once again: different data and different dates of some events and different scenarios can now be announced. The Ukrainian Army has calculated all these scenarios and is ready for them,” he stressed. At the same time, the Defense Minister has indicated that there is no withdrawal of Russian soldiers on the borders with Ukraine, which he estimated at 149,000 troops. “First, we do not confirm the statements of the Russian side on the withdrawal of troops. This is not happening. There is a movement of forces and military equipment,” he said. “Second, we currently monitor the Russian units, which number 129,000 people in its ground component and, together with several thousand more people from the naval and aviation components, number about 149,000,” Reznikov calculated.
Russia announced on Tuesday the partial withdrawal of units from the western and southern military districts, both of which border Ukraine, and since then has published videos and announcements almost daily about the withdrawal of soldiers and military equipment to its permanent garrisons, although it does not provide figures or where the troops return from.
This Friday, the Russian Ministry of Defense has reported that ten Su-24 bombers stationed in the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, returned to the Rostov region and the Krasnodar Territory. In addition, he has stated that another train with tanks from the western military district began to return to its permanent point of deployment. “Our intelligence sees all movements that could pose a potential threat to Ukraine. Every plane, helicopter or tank unit, we see them. We are in constant contact with our international partners and receive confirmation of such information,” Reznikov said.
The Defense Minister has also referred to the increase in military tension in Donbas, where the Army and the pro-Russian separatists supported by Moscow have been clashing since 2014 and where serious violations of the ceasefire imposed in 2015 were recorded on Thursday.
The self-proclaimed republics of Lugansk and Donetsk have again denounced alleged attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine this Friday on the contact line, while Kiev has stressed that only yesterday the separatists carried out 60 attacks, 43 of which were with weapons banned by the Minsk peace accords. Two soldiers and two civilians were injured.
Reznikov has also pointed out that from January 1 to February 16, 107 attacks were recorded on positions of Ukrainian soldiers in the contact line of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions from the territories occupied by pro-Russian militias. The minister has assured that Ukraine is already used to Russian provocations and that Kiev is not planning any violent action against the separatist territories of Lugansk and Donetsk or the Crimean peninsula, because it is committed to a peaceful solution to the conflict. (Eph)
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