This one is so easy, even the worst annual prediction column in Super Bowl history can’t be wrong.
This one is so basic, even the buzz surrounding my 5-17 Super Bowl prediction record can be ignored.
Yes, once I was wrong 11 times in a row. Yeah, I once picked the Buffalo Bills three years in a row. Yeah, in the last Super Bowl, I did as badly as the Kansas Chiefs.
No, I’m not very good at this.
But yes, really, this forecast is different, it’s simple, this one is Plaschke proof.
The winner of Sunday’s Super Bowl LVI between the LA Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals at SoFi Stadium will be decided by something as obvious as a punch to the mouth.
The Rams have the biggest swing, the hardest hit. They are heavyweights. The Bengals are not.
Quite simply and pretty quickly, the Rams are going to knock them out.
Rams 38, Bengals 10.
All the hype and saucer this week has revolved around the great Bengals quarterback, Joe Burrow; the attractive receiver, Ja’Marr Chase, and a surprisingly suffocating defense. All the trending narratives have the members of this lineup making all the big plays, peaking at the right time, a fated team.
Rams safety Nick Scott reflects on the field after L.A. beat the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC title game Jan. 30 at SoFi Stadium.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)
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“You could say the same for us as well,” Rams safety Eric Weddle said.
Exactly. Precisely. Lost in all the histrionics of Super Bowl week is the fact that whatever the Bengals do, the Rams execute better, and they’ve done great, and they will do it on their home turf.
I’m wondering the same. Strong bet. The Bengals are the youngest team in Super Bowl history, and that matters. Their resourceful offense has just four touchdowns in 11 red zone visits this postseason, and that matters. Their quick defense has been sub-par in the first half of games this season, and the Rams are 47-1 when they lead at halftime under Sean McVay, and that’s about it.
The Bengals have gotten all the love from the Super Bowl, but this game ultimately won’t be about them, it’s about the Rams, their culture, their cohesiveness, their crowning glory.
“They have some things that we have to fight, but really, it’s about us,” Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey said.
You might think it’s about Burrow. Every discussion of this game starts with him: how he’s the ultimate winner, he hasn’t lost a big game since high school, he could become the first player in history to win a Super Bowl, a college football national championship, a Heisman trophy and being drafted first.
Fine, but how is he going to stay upright? He was sacked nine times in the AFC divisional playoff win against the Tennessee Titans and that was no anomaly. The Cincinnati Bengals’ offensive line blocks almost as well as the Kansas Chiefs’ offensive line in last year’s Super Bowl, and we saw Patrick Mahomes run for his life. For the same reasons, the same will happen here.
The Bengals’ offensive line ranks 30th in pass-rush win rate, while the Rams’ defensive line is first in that category. Burrow led the NFL in passing QBR, but the Rams allowed the fewest touchdowns and the second-lowest QBR.
Translation? Burrow won’t have time to do much more than retreat into his rabbit hole, and Aaron Donald could be the MVP in a forceful response to his latest lukewarm Super Bowl.
“We have youngsters who deserve a championship. We lost a Super Bowl. We have a chance at redemption,” Rams cornerback Darious Williams said. “Jalen [Ramsey] has a legacy. Aaron Donald owns another. We don’t want this to get out of hand.”
After Burrow and his offense, the turn then generally goes to the Bengals’ defense, which shut down Mahomes to get here and has intercepted at least one pass in each of Cincinnati’s last four games.
But this same Bengals defense has ranked 25th in completion percentage on downcourt passes of more than 20 yards this season, while Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has led the NFL in yards per attempt. on similar downfield shots with nine touchdowns.
And this same Bengals defense ranks 25th in pass gain rate, while the Rams’ offensive line ranks first in that category.
Translation: Stafford is going to have plenty of time to throw Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. deep.
While the Rams’ defense will dominate, it’s their offense that will be the difference between Sunday and the team’s last Super Bowl. This offense has chemistry that didn’t exist with Jared Goff and Todd Gurley. This time, it will score more than three points.
“A lot of players on this team, you look at them and say, ‘Man, I want to win for that guy, he deserves it,’” Rams offensive tackle and anchor Andrew Whitworth said. “This is one of the most unique seasons I’ve ever had, a group of teammates who have gotten an opportunity like this and handled themselves in such an impressive way, you would do anything for them to have that chance to hold that trophy.”
This lineup looks very different from the one that shakily stepped foot in its last Super Bowl. She looks ready.
“I don’t think anyone here feels like we’ve left anything by the wayside,” Rams linebacker Troy Reeder said.
The disparity of talent, the veteran culture, the big-game experience, the comfort of being hometown will all end up deciding this game in favor of a group of Rams that appears to be the true predestined lineup on Sunday.
“It’s all about … who keeps their composure, who makes the fewest mistakes, who executes that situation the cleanest and the best,” Weddle said. “Our great players compete very well, we have a great chance to win.”
And they will. They will do it.
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