Threat assessment: – New threats against Norway

We do not need reports from the authorities to realize that the world has become a more dangerous place. Just take a look at Ukraine, which is now surrounded by invasive Russian forces. Nevertheless, the annual threat assessments from the Armed Forces’ E-service, the Police Security Service (PST) and the National Security Authority (NSM) are of great importance in order to form an overall picture of the situation.

There we see that the threat picture is complex and constantly changing, both in terms of relations with other states and internal threats. Among other things, it is clear that digital threats, attacks and espionage are a rapidly growing problem. Two computer attacks against the Storting last year are examples of this. The Norwegian authorities have publicly identified Russia and China as responsible. PST says new network operations will hit Norwegian targets, especially aimed at defense, emergency preparedness, policy formulation and technology.

The big picture characterized by increased antagonisms between the United States / West and China and Russia. This has led to an arms race that includes both several nuclear warheads and new, “smart” weapon technology that includes hypersonic gliders against which there is no effective defense.

In the reports Russia and China are designated as the largest players in terms of intelligence activities aimed at Norway. These are countries that are increasingly moving towards centralized and authoritarian power. The authorities in these countries use all the state’s instruments to support the state’s goals. According to the E-service, this includes everything from military pressure and economic instruments to intelligence operations, trade agreements and political influence.

According to PST will people with right-wing extremist or extreme Islamist convictions pose the greatest terrorist threat to Norway. PST considers it “possible” (between 40 and 60 percent likely) that these groups will try to carry out terrorist acts in Norway.

A new group is now included in the police threat assessment. It includes people who promote anti-state ideas and conspiracies. Central is the claim that the state does not have a legitimate basis for the exercise of power. Vaccine resistance is included as a unifying factor. In general, it is about distrust of the authorities, of the media and groups they perceive as a threat to traditional Norwegian values. So far, these groups do not pose a significant threat, but that may change. It is important to have democratic preparedness and combat them with democratic means.

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