The War of Russia in Belarus Into a Message for Ukraine

MINSK – Russia start the defense white 10 days in Belarus, Thursday (10/2/2022). According to security experts, this show of force designed to send a message to Ukraine and the West that Moscow is serious about a potential war.

Forces and hardware of Russia began to arrive in Belarus in mid-January, with approximately 30,000 combat troops expected to participate in the exercise known as the “Allied Resolve”.

Two battalions of the missile system surface-to-air S-400 and 12 fighter jet Sukhoi Su-35 also has been placed.

NATO called it as the deployment of Russian forces from largest to Belarusian since the Cold War. It happens when Moscow has collected tens of thousands of soldiers and military hardware in the region around the border of Ukraine and in Crimea which is now a territory of Russia.

“Active phase” of the exercise will begin on Thursday (10/2/2022) and mark a surge in military activity during the standoff with the West about Ukraine when Western leaders continue diplomatic efforts to defuse the situation.

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It is estimated that Allied Resolve will include a maneuvering air power and ground forces large-scale to simulate an attack from a NATO country nearby.

The U.S. and NATO have warned that such exercises can be used as a smokescreen for the real attack, or effort to seize the capital City of the Ukrina; Kiev, which is located 150 km south of the border with Belarus. This is similar to Russian military exercises that are not announced happens right before the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Experts told Al Jazeera that invasion or a full scale attack during exercise may not happen, but it does not rule out the possibility that a wrong move from either side during the tension can result in military action.

“The presence of the military intended to threaten Poland and Lithuania to the west, and northern Ukraine. The message is that Russia is able to perform operations that can seize Kiev,” said Alexander Khara, a former Ukrainian diplomat and expert on security policy in the Center of the Defense Strategy.

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