Protests in Kazakhstan
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Why has it turned from a socio-economic protest in Kazakhstan into a political one and does it have geopolitical sources?
In Kazakhstan, protests do not stop, as well as attempts to understand their causes. The actions, which began due to a significant increase in autogas prices, are already being held under political slogans about a change of power and new elections.
Correspondent.net gathered expert opinions on the sources of the Kazakh protest.
From economics to politics
Experts admit that the two-fold rise in prices for autogas at once has become a serious trigger for the Kazakhs. Political demands were always present in society, but they were harshly suppressed by the authorities.
“There have always been political demands, but under the conditions of the opposition rolled into the asphalt, the authorities managed to neutralize them. Now they are all on the surface again. True, while we do not see any serious political leadership among the protesters, and this is a great achievement for the authorities, they have no one to talk to yet. She can declare: “These are all rioters, looters, hooligans, they must be quickly pressed to the nail,” says Russian political scientist Arkady Dubnov, an expert on Asian countries.
Leaderless
A protest without leaders can hardly count on anything serious. Someone should lead the action. All prominent Kazakh oppositionists are in exile.
For example, former Prime Minister Akezhan Kazhigeldin left the country back in 1997. Today, Kazhigeldin is addressing the people of Kazakhstan, in some regions they are demanding his return to the country. He is ready to use modern means of communication to represent the interests of the protesters. But while this is all in the project, the real leaders of the protest “on the ground” are not yet visible.
Clan Showdown
Historically, Kazakhstan is divided by tribal character into three zhuzes. The West of Kazakhstan refers to the Younger Zhuz – this is an established definition, he really is like a stepson in relation to the Senior and Middle Zhuz. Nazarbayev is a representative of the clan that belongs to the Senior Zhuz. The further development of events will be largely determined by the behavior of the elders of these zhuzes. Decisions will hardly be made without their advice, Dubnov said.
“The current president Tokayev also belongs to the Senior zhuz, but from a different kind – the jalayyrs. But the clans of the Middle Zhuz and the Younger Zhuz lost their influence under Nazarbayev, although it is in the west of the country, the fiefdom of the “younger ones” that the main oil deposits are located, which means that wealth is concentrated. In short, there is no linear answer to the question “what happened in Kazakhstan”. Traditions must be added to economic and political reasons, and this is a weak point that most home-grown experts do not pay attention to, if they even know about it, ”says Ukrainian journalist Valeriy Kalnysh.
The role of the Kremlin
According to Ukrainian political scientist Yevgeny Magda, during the protests, incumbent President Kasim-Zhomart Tokayev exchanged the removal of Nursultan Nazarbayev from power for a demonstration of increased loyalty to Russia due to the activation of the use of the CSTO. “The calculation is quite simple: the elimination of the Nazarbayev family will reduce social tension and satisfy the appetites of the entourage of the second president of Kazakhstan, because there is no need to seriously talk about changing the management model … Unfortunately, Russia will soon receive opportunities to strengthen its positions in Kazakhstan and Central Asia as a whole … The presence of the CSTO peacekeepers may drag on for an indefinite period, ”says Magda.
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