That’s why nobody wants the Chargers in the playoffs

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Still, LA is one of the most dangerous teams in the AFC. The reason is easy to explain: Justin Herbert. Herbert already had seven games with a PFF grade over 80 in 2021 and got the record for the most touchdowns of a Chargers quarterback in one season from Philip Rivers, but also showed against the Patriots and Ravens, among others, that he still had very bad games has. Nevertheless: Over the last few weeks Herbert has at least got some consistency in his game, in three of his last five games his EPA per play were above the season average.

Herbert is strongest in Third Down, the “money” down in the NFL. Only Kyler Murray has more EPA per play on the third try than the 23-year-old. That was already the case last year, which led many data analysts to believe that Herbert would show clear signs of regression here. That didn’t happen because Herbert is a one-of-a-kind quarterback. And that’s despite the fact that the Chargers receivers have the fifth highest drop rate in the league this year (33 drops). Herbert is the exception to the rule.

Rush defense as an Achilles heel in the playoffs?

While the Chargers Offense can keep up with any team on good days thanks to Herbert, the Defense has been the problem child of the Bolts all year round. Despite all the (justified) praise Staley received for his aggressive and analytical decisions on fourth attempts of the season, Staley’s hobbyhorse is this Chargers team’s greatest weakness. Run defense in particular was on a historically bad path at the beginning of the year. Staley has now taken countermeasures by pitting more defenders in early downs.

Chargers run defense this season:
vs #Raiders: 2.67 ypc allowed, 48 yards rushing/game
vs everyone else: 4.68 ypc allowed, 142.6 yards rushing/game

— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) January 5, 2022

This in turn is at the expense of defending the pass, although the intermittent failures of star safety Derwin James and cornerback Michael Davis certainly did not help. With a playoff field with stars like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and the formidable Joe Burrow as well as strong running teams like Indianapolis, Tennessee and New England, it will be difficult for the Chargers to start a playoff run if Herbert is not at the highest level plays.

The last appearance of the Defense against the Broncos was promising, but with all due respect the Broncos are not the yardstick, especially without starters like Jerry Jeudy, Teddy Bridgewater and Tackle Bobby Massie. The game against the Chiefs three weeks ago when Los Angeles managed 25 pressures – more than twice as many as in the two games combined since then – gave more hope. The Chargers desperately need the pressure up front to compete with high-scoring teams like Kansas City and Buffalo.

Can the Raiders stop Justin Herbert?

Initially, the focus of the Chargers is fully on the Raiders, who also still have their fate in their own hands and reach the playoffs with a win. At the first meeting of the two teams at Monday Night Football in week 4, the Chargers were already leading 21-0 at halftime, and at the end of the day the Bolts had a 28-14 win. Herbert had one of his best games of the season, throwing for 222 yards and three touchdowns without interception.

Defensive Coordinator Gus Bradley and the Raiders Defense will try to prevent something similar. The question is: Will Bradley deviate from his typical cover 3 concepts, against which Herbert has a PPF grade of almost 82 this year? Bradley waived a defensive scheme change against the Chiefs, Mahomes made the Raiders pay twice. Herbert would also be happy about a good dose of Cover 3 on Sunday evening. The rest of the AFC arguably less so.

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