Economist Alicja Defratyka, author of the project oliweliczby.pl, economic journalist Maciej Samcik from “Subjecttywnie o finansach” and the economist and economic analyst Rafał Mundry.
–
Inflation in November was 7.8 percent year on year, according to data provided by the Central Statistical Office (GUS). This is more than previously reported in the preliminary GUS estimate. In October, inflation was 6.8 percent. Observed inflation readings are at their highest since December 2000, when prices rose by 8.5 percent year on year.
–
According to the government, the rise in prices is to be stopped by the so-called anti-inflation shield. From December 20 under the program a time-lowered excise tax on fuels applies.
–
How long will we struggle with high inflation?
When asked what the situation will be during the next holidays – for Easter 2022 – Defratyka replied: – Unfortunately, I do not have good information. We have to expect it to be expensive. Even if the dynamics will not be as high as it has been observed in recent months, it does not mean that this inflation will not be around 7, 8, 9 or even 10 percent.
–
She added that “we have to be prepared that we will pay more than now”.
–
WATCH THE ENTIRE CONVERSATION IN “FACT AFTER FACT” ON TVN24 GO
–
Mundry expressed a similar opinion and stated that “the prices will be higher”. Samcik, in turn, pointed out that perhaps next year people who incur high fuel costs “may be relieved, because in a few months gasoline may be cheaper”.
–
– Poles must take into account that money loses its value – emphasized Defratyka. She added that according to the survey she carried out, it appears that every fourth Pole is not aware that inflation is reducing the purchasing value of money. – High inflation of eight percent a year means that we have one less salary. So for our money that we previously earned, we can only afford the same for 11 months – said the economist.
–
Inflation in NovemberPAP / Maciej Zieliński
–
The influence of the anti-inflationary shield and the Polish Order
– We all got used to adding money to the solution, but now in the context of what is happening – high inflation – we can see that it is adding money to this anti-inflationary shield that will make this inflation high and long-lasting. This will spread over a longer period of time. Adding money has even worse consequences – Defratyka said.
–
She added that “the solutions are more complex”. – The authorities should listen to the experts-economists who warned much earlier that interest rates should be raised. The effect is visible after a long time. A minimum of three quarters and that is why this anti-inflationary shield has been introduced now, is expected to be until May and it is estimated that at the end of May the first effects of the interest rate hikes that started in October will be visible. Then we can see these effects. This is done in such a way as to smoothly transition from the target to activities related to raising interest rates – she explained.
–
– From the beginning of the year, the Polish Order comes into force and entrepreneurs will feel tax increases. So if we have a baker and he has to lower VAT from five percent to zero percent, and on the other hand, he has to maintain the bakery, pay higher energy bills, pay higher wages to employees, pay higher taxes and contributions, he may think that VAT is reduced , but I will leave this surplus as a mini-compensation for the increases that the “government imposed” on me on the other hand – said Defratyka.
–
Zero VAT on food and retail tax
According to the economist, we will not feel a strong reduction in VAT on food.
–
– I would assume that large retail chains in Poland, if the government decides to reduce VAT on food to zero, will not allow consumers not to notice it. We have competition between retail chains in Poland and these chains will want to use it for promotion. These prices in the big chains will go down, said Mundry.
–
He added that the government introduced a retail sales tax this year. – On the one hand, the government reduces VAT to zero on food, on the other hand introduces a tax on retail sales. Not only that, it is not profit, but income, so in fact, despite the fact that it amounts to 1.4 percent, it is a greater burden. So I would be calling not only to lower VAT on food, but also to lower the tax on retail sales. It is possible and the government has introduced it in the case of fuels – said the economist.
–
Is it worth taking a loan now?
– Today is not the best time to take a loan – said Samcik.
–
He added that “the National Bank of Poland, in order to save money stability, must raise interest rates, otherwise it will destroy the value of the zloty”. – Therefore, interest rates will be higher, loans will be more expensive and if today someone would like to take a loan, especially a large mortgage, there are no contraindications if he goes to the bank and does a calculation: I can afford today’s installment, for example PLN 2,000 per month, but I will also be able to afford it when the installment is PLN 2,800 – said the journalist.
–
In his opinion, if a person can afford to pay a monthly installment a few hundred zlotys higher in the future, there is no problem. – Many people who are in debt now do not do this account and unfortunately it may end badly for them – said Samcik.
–
Samcik on whether it is worth taking a loan nowTVN24
–
The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) during its December meeting, for the third time in a row, decided to raise the reference rate. This time by 50 basis points to 1.75 percent. In October, the main central bank rate increased from 0.1 to 0.5 percent. It was the first increase since May 2012. In November, the main rate rose again to 1.25 percent.
–
NBP reference ratePAP / Maciej Zieliński
–
“The economies have not adjusted yet”
One of the reasons for high inflation is the pandemic, according to Mundry. – The economies have not adjusted yet, they are still in the process of adjustment, in the economy we call it shocks. We are currently dealing with demand and supply shocks – he said.
–
He described it on an example: – In the United States, consumer habits have changed due to the pandemic. Demand for durable goods such as a refrigerator, oven and stove has increased by 30 percent. Americans are less eager to go out and buy, and more willing to consume services they previously used in the city, at home.
–
The economist also mentioned the shortage of microprocessors in cars. – It turns out that they are being used elsewhere. Consumers have changed their habits, they are afraid and do not want to use public transport, and prefer cars. These are the factors that influenced it – he emphasized.
–
Mundry on economies during the pandemicTVN24
—
